Poland Market now entering Q4 peak

This is the time when the pressure rises to close negotiations begun mid-year, with intensified activity from developers and tenants.

The fourth quarter brings an average of nearly 200 signed contracts in the office sector, representing 29 pct of the annual volume. This high activity is a consequence of several overlapping phenomena – companies strive to finalise transactions before the end of the year to include them in their annual results or use up their annual budgets. At the same time, the second half of the year is the time when the highest number of recent studies and forecasts are available, providing significant support for decision-making. Negotiations initiated in spring and summer often end with contracts signed in the autumn, further amplifying the seasonal effect.

Q4 is when the office market accelerates. Efficiency and accuracy in reading market signals now become crucial to prepare for the coming months, and even years. As advisors, aware of this dynamic, we intensify our efforts to analyse trends and complete studies to support companies in closing the year as effectively as possible.
Paweł Proński, office space director, Colliers

The beginning of the year is typically characterised by the lowest market activity. In the first quarter, just over 160 office space lease agreements are signed on average, representing 23 pct of the annual volume. This is because companies are only just starting new budgets and analysing their results, so they make fewer final decisions at this stage.

The Supply and Demand Cycle

While demand for office space peaks in Q4, the number of new projects delivered accumulates in Q2. Over this period from 2015 to 2025, developers delivered an average of five new projects, accounting for 31 pct of the annual supply. The first quarter came in second with 27 pct of the annual number of projects. Overall, nearly 60 pct of projects were launched in the first half of the year.

This schedule results from the construction cycle – the winter slowdown means that the turn of spring and summer is the natural time for project completion. Weather conditions also mean that technical inspections and finishing work are more common at this time. Developers, however, avoid the end of the year, when the holiday season and reduced administrative availability can risk delays.
Anna Laskowska, analyst, Colliers.

The summer months bring moderate transaction activity. The third quarter accounts for an average of 24 pct of the annual number of signed contracts, similar to the second quarter but less than at the end of the year. However, just 20 pct of new projects appear at his time, the lowest proportion of the annual supply. This is due to the holiday season and the limited availability of construction crews.

Cycle Asynchrony and Its Consequences

According to the data from 2015-2025, the supply and demand cycles in the real estate market are diverging over time. This has significant market implications. The end of the year often brings high demand with few new projects – this limits choice and increases competition among tenants. In turn, in the spring, when the highest number of new projects come to the market, tenant activity is lower. This leads to a situation where landlords have to woo new tenants by offering additional incentives and more favourable lease terms.

Tenants planning expansion or relocation may seek more favourable terms in the spring and the summer, when supply is at its highest and competition for space is low. In turn, landlords and developers need to prepare their pre-lease strategies with the fourth quarter in mind, when the market reaches its peak,
Paweł Proński