Poland Developer sentiment improves as apartment sales strengthen

The stronger outlook comes despite the lack of another interest rate cut, regulatory changes or any new measure to boost housing demand. Instead, Tabelaofert says, more buyers appear to have decided that waiting for lower prices is unlikely to pay off.

The August results show that the market performed better than could have been expected just a few weeks ago. There were no further interest rate cuts or a programme that suddenly brought customers into sales offices. Some buyers simply stopped waiting for a better moment. They can see that prices are not falling and that there is a wide choice of apartments, so they are beginning to make decisions. And that is what is making the biggest difference to the market right now.
Robert Chojnacki, founder of Tabelaofert

Developers turn more positive on sales

The shift in sentiment has been rapid. In June, only 18.2 pct of developers expected sales to increase, while 26.8 pct forecast a decline. By August, 57.5 pct expected sales to rise, 37.3 pct predicted stability and just 4.7 pct anticipated a fall.

The share expecting stronger sales has therefore more than tripled since June.

Two months ago, developers were wondering how deep the summer slowdown would be. Instead, July brought very strong sales, and the August results show that the industry does not see this as a one-off result. Developers can see that demand held up despite the holiday period, and are therefore increasingly assuming that the coming months could bring further improvement.
Ewa Palus, chief analyst at Tabelaofert

Price growth remains a different story

Developers are considerably less confident about their ability to raise prices. The Apartment Price Change Index increased from 0.00 in July to 0.13 in August, well below the 0.53 recorded by the Sales Momentum Change Index.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents, 73.8 pct, expect prices to remain unchanged. The proportion forecasting an increase rose to 19.3 pct from 10.7 pct in July, while 6 pct expect prices to fall.

The increase in price expectations is visible, but it should not be overstated. Almost three-quarters of developers still expect prices to remain stable. Stabilisation therefore remains the base-case scenario for most of the market, despite the clear improvement in sales sentiment.
Ewa Palus

The figures suggest that developers currently see stronger sales as a more realistic prospect than higher prices.

Better sales do not necessarily mean higher prices immediately. The market is highly selective today. In projects that are selling well, or for the most sought-after apartments, there may be room for price increases, but in other developments developers will still have to compete strongly for customers. Therefore, even if prices begin to rise, this is more likely to be a localised phenomenon than a market-wide movement.
Katarzyna Tworska, managing director of Rednet Partners

Smaller, cheaper apartments lead the market

The recovery is not being felt evenly across developers’ offerings. Lower-priced apartments are selling fastest, with two-room units particularly popular.

Rather than waiting for prices to fall, some buyers are adjusting their expectations, opting for smaller apartments or locations further from the city centre to stay within budget.

Larger apartments are proving harder to sell and are more likely to require discounts. This suggests that the recovery in demand remains selective, with buyers focusing on apartments that fit their budgets most closely.

Demand faces its next test

Developers are entering the end of the summer with a markedly more positive outlook, but there is still no broad expectation of rising prices. The stronger sentiment reflects actual sales performance rather than simply the belief that the market has already bottomed out.

The first half of the year was fairly strong in terms of sales despite factors that encouraged caution among both buyers and developers, including geopolitical uncertainty and less favourable financing conditions. July’s performance appears to have reinforced confidence that demand can hold up beyond the holiday period.

The coming months will show whether the stronger activity seen over the summer marks the start of a sustained recovery in sales. For now, developers are more optimistic about sales, while buyers remain price-sensitive and overall apartment prices are expected to remain broadly stable.