Sometimes sun, sometimes rain
The Poles like to say that March is like a pot of soup, their equivalent of saying that it comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. This is also true on the Côte d'Azur. In Cannes this year, the beautiful sun and blue waves, which the French Riviera is famous for, were mingled with a blustery wind and pouring rain. This was mirrored in the corridors of the Festival Palace, where the optimism was mixed with anxiety
However, it seems that positive tones dominated the mix (which hopefully will not turn out to be an explosive one). ”A short summary of this year’s fair: the mood is still optimistic, while the perception of the logistics and industrial sector is very positive through the prism of e-commerce. A great deal of interest in portfolio transactions. Questions about the political situation of individual countries in Europe, including Poland, have arisen, but they are not having a major impact on investors’ appetites on a very liquid capital market,” – was the reaction of Robert Dobrzycki, the CEO of Panattoni Europe. Poland is indeed the unquestionable leader of the CEE region. “Poland is enjoying considerable interest among investors, who emphasise the growing maturity and liquidity of the market as well as its strong macro-economic foundations;. However, it will now be scrutinised more closely due to the Constitutional Tribunal controversy, since stable political situations are a basic requirement of investors. We have been seen a strong influx of capital, including funds from Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and China) and South Africa – and we are expecting more transactions involving new investors this year. Investors are aware of the global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks (the possible Brexit, the immigration crisis, the Chinese economic slowdown, the conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of Donald Trump becoming the US president). But real estate still offers attractive rates of return compared to the other instruments of the capital market,” commented Colliers International managing partner Monika Rajska-Wolińska. The huge interest of investors in Poland was confirmed by Agata Jurek-Zbrojska, a counsel at Hogan Lovells. “Fortunately, investors remain optimistic. As lawyers we are constantly monitoring both the situation and any proposed changes in the law very carefully to be able to inform our clients about the real impact of these proposals on their businesses and to offer some advice. This year will certainly be another test for the real estate market. However, everything indicates that there should be another record high real estate transaction volume in Poland this year and a few outstanding individual transactions that will confirm the maturity of our market,” she added. In her opinion this year’s MIPIM was filled with questions about the political and economic situation in our country. The current administration attempted to reassure concerned investors in the form of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Development Mateusz Morawiecki, who visited the Warsaw stand and participated in a discussion together with the deputy mayor of Gdynia, ABSL representatives and the Noerr law firm. Did he manage to calm nerves down and encourage new investors to come to Poland? Well... “I don’t know what to expect from a visit of the Minister. I hope he is here to bring some positive news to the sector,” said Szymon Duda of GD&K Group, which was showcasing its Unity Center project, i.e. the former Szkieletor building, on the Kraków stand. “After ten years of work we can finally make a start! In the course of preparing for the project we experienced a many business cycles and several different authorities in Poland. During this year’s fair I didn’t hear the word ‘crisis’ once, so it was a perfect MIPIM – only the weather was bad,” he concluded. The Kraków stand was flanked by those of such cities as Łódź, Katowice, the TriCity. The idea of bringing together all the Polish cities in one location was praised by many of those attending the fair. Many enjoyed the ease of discussing and viewing investment offers without the need to constantly march down yet another underground corridor. “The MIPIM fair is an excellent opportunity to advertise the potential of Łódź and the unique atmosphere that can be experienced everywhere in the city at every turn. This year one of those projects highlighted was Nowe Centrum Łodzi, but we were also presenting the offers of neighbouring administrative districts as well as many projects from the private sector. And we hope to have gone some way to promoting the idea of holding Expo 2022 in Łódź, which would be a unique opportunity for our city’s development in the near future,” emphasised Hanna Zdanowska, the mayor of Łódź. The Warsaw stand was vivid and lively – and it was difficult to squeeze through during the cocktail party that featured Mateusz Morawiecki and Warsaw mayor Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz. The topic of the acquisition of Echo Investment, however, could be clearly heard above the hubbub. The names ‘Griffin’ name and ‘Krych‘ have been having an electrifying effect on the sector for some time now. “Polish cities and companies made a very good show of themselves. Echo Investment’s stand also enjoyed a great deal of interest. The recent transaction for the purchase of a 75 pct stake in Echo’s commercial portfolio by Redefine Properties, one of the largest South African REIT funds, received widespread attention in Cannes. I think this added to the perception of Poland of being a mature and stable market in the minds of investors,” concluded Piotr Gromniak, the president of the board of Echo Investment. According to the organisers of the real estate fair, the number of those attending was up by 10 pct on 2015’s figures – a total of app. 23,500 people. The next meeting is to take place on March 14–17th 2017.
