Poland Polish warehouse market rebounds as tenant demand rises by more than 21 pct

As of the end of June 2026, Poland’s total stock of modern warehouse and industrial space exceeded 38 mln sqm, representing an increase of approximately 5.5 pct compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the pace of market growth continues to slow, with stock growth standing at around 7.5 pct a year earlier.

In the first half of the year, developers delivered more than 1.23 mln sqm of new space, 7.3 pct more than in the first six months of 2025. In Q2 alone, new supply amounted to approximately 578,600 sqm, down 11.4 pct quarter on quarter but up 23.5 pct year on year.

The largest amount of new space was delivered in the Mazowieckie region, with almost 396,100 sqm, accounting for nearly one-third of total new supply in the first half of the year. It was followed by the Silesian region with 143,550 sqm, Pomerania with 139,100 sqm and Lower Silesia with 116,100 sqm.

These figures point to a moderate recovery on the supply side, although expansion is clearly proceeding at a slower pace than in previous years.
Jakub Kurek, director of the industrial and warehouse department at Newmark Polska

Developers remain cautious

Developer activity remains moderate. At the end of June, approximately 1.30 mln sqm of warehouse and industrial space was under construction. This represents a decline of 10.4 pct quarter on quarter and 11.2 pct year on year.

More than half – 53.9 pct – of the total space under construction was concentrated in two regions: Mazowieckie, where almost 381,350 sqm was under construction, and Silesia, with 321,150 sqm.

Overall, almost 85 pct of space under construction is being developed across the country’s six largest regional markets: Mazowieckie, Silesian, Lower Silesian, Łódź, Greater Poland and Pomeranian.

The number of new projects also reflects developers’ cautious approach. Around 25 pct fewer projects were launched in the first half of 2026 than in the same period last year.

Tenants return to the market

A clear recovery is visible on the tenant side. In Q2 2026, total demand for warehouse and industrial space exceeded 1.93 mln sqm, up 22.4 pct quarter on quarter and 6.3 pct year on year.

It was also the strongest second-quarter result in four years, since Q2 2022, and the fifth-highest quarterly level of tenant activity in the history of the Polish market.

In the first half of the year, tenants leased more than 3.51 mln sqm, 21.3 pct more than in the same period of 2025. Importantly, the increase in demand coincided with a decline in vacancy. This indicates that tenants are gradually absorbing available space in existing facilities despite continued growth in total market stock.

The structure of transactions also changed. In the first six months of the year, new leases accounted for 52.1 pct of total demand, or approximately 1.83 mln sqm. Renegotiations accounted for 34.4 pct, or around 1.21 mln sqm, while expansions represented 7.8 pct and sale-and-leaseback transactions 5.7 pct.

By comparison, in the first half of 2025, new leases accounted for approximately 40 pct of demand, while renegotiations represented nearly 54 pct.

Interest in short-term leases also increased. In the first half of the year, tenants signed contracts of up to one year covering approximately 172,700 sqm, nearly 35 pct more than a year earlier.

E-commerce drives demand again

The highest tenant activity was recorded in the Silesian, Lower Silesian, Łódź, Mazowieckie and Greater Poland regions. Their shares of total transaction volume were 17.7 pct, 16.6 pct, 16.3 pct, 15.8 pct and 15.2 pct, respectively.

The largest transactions completed in the first half of 2026 included a 125,800 sqm sale-and-leaseback warehouse transaction dedicated to Raben in Poznań, a 107,850 sqm lease signed by a confidential tenant at EQT Exeter Poznań Żerniki I, and the renegotiation of a lease covering approximately 101,500 sqm by Castorama at Panattoni BTS Castorama in Stryków. Another major deal was a new lease covering approximately 100,000 sqm, signed by Latex Opony at Panattoni Park Bytom.

Activity in the e-commerce sector also increased significantly. Companies from the sector leased more than 800,000 sqm in the first half of the year, accounting for nearly 23 pct of total demand. Among the most active tenants were Shein and Temu.

The first half of 2026 also saw 11 transactions covering at least 50,000 sqm, compared with seven a year earlier.

Less space available

The increase in tenant activity is gradually reducing the amount of available space. According to Newmark Polska, more than 2.5 mln sqm is currently available for lease in existing warehouses, more than 15 pct less than a year earlier. Buildings under construction offer an additional 502,000 sqm.

At the end of June 2026, the national vacancy rate stood at 6.6 pct, compared with 8.2 pct a year earlier. This was the first time since Q2 2023 that the rate had fallen below 7 pct.

The highest vacancy rates were recorded in the Świętokrzyskie region, at 17.9 pct, and Podkarpackie, at 14.0 pct. The lowest rates were recorded in Opolskie (1.1 pct), Warmia-Masuria (2.1 pct) and West Pomerania (2.3 pct).

On most major regional markets, availability ranged between approximately 5 and 8 pct. Notable year-on-year declines in vacancy were recorded in Lower Silesia, Central Poland and Greater Poland.

Rents remain stable, but market polarisation increases

Rents for prime warehouse and industrial space in the country’s major markets remain relatively stable. At the same time, the gap between modern facilities in the most attractive locations and older, less efficient buildings is becoming increasingly pronounced.

The decline in vacancy is reducing pressure to cut rents in the prime segment. Owners of older properties and facilities located in markets with higher levels of available space are, however, more willing to offer tenants more extensive incentive packages.

The highest rents continue to be recorded in Warsaw (Zone I) and the Pomeranian region.
Agnieszka Giermakowska, director of research and advisory and ESG lead at Newmark Polska

Market outlook

The first-half figures show the warehouse and industrial market entering a period of gradual rebalancing. On the one hand, rising tenant activity and falling vacancy point to an improvement in demand. On the other, developers’ cautious approach and the declining volume of space under construction suggest that supply growth could slow further in the coming quarters.

This could lead to further reductions in available space, particularly in the most attractive markets and for high-quality facilities. At the same time, growing activity in the e-commerce sector and an increase in the number of large transactions indicate that demand for modern warehouse space remains an important driver of Poland’s commercial real estate market.