Poland The shopping centre lives on

Poland has just over 400 shopping centres. Combined, they provide 10 mln sqm of leasable space, accounting for around 60 pct of the total modern retail space in Poland.

The highest density of space and the number of operating centres are in large cities, with Warsaw leading the way.

The average density of shopping centre space nationwide is approximately 270 sqm per 1,000 people. It should be noted, however, that the market is localised, so some areas, especially towns and cities, are characterised by a much higher rate. On the other hand, the largest markets in terms of available space do not necessarily have the highest saturation.

From a national perspective, Poland is similar to France (around 260 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants), Italy (280 sqm), and the Czech Republic, slightly above Germany (200 sqm). Scandinavia has more retail space (around 500 sqm in Sweden) as well as the UK, the Netherlands (almost 400 sqm), and Luxembourg (as much as 902 sqm). However, cities in Western Europe have much stronger high streets, further increasing the retail stock, so the actual saturation of space in these countries is even higher.

Is Poland oversaturated with shopping centres?

It's difficult to talk about market saturation or oversaturation, as each market has its own unique absorption, specifics, location, and affluence. For example, Legnica has one of the highest shopping centre saturation rates (over 850 sqm per thousand inhabitants). But this town is relatively wealthy, and its retail space attracts shoppers from across the Poland's western and southern borders. Bełchatów is another town with above-average purchasing power. This is reflected in its retail, with the saturation rate reaching as high as 840 sqm per thousand.
Maciej Kotowski, research and consultancy director, JLL

Vacancy is Rare

Despite very strong competition from retail parks and convenience centres in recent years, the vacancy rate in shopping centres is low, indicating relatively high occupancy.
The average occupancy rate for shopping centres in the eight largest cities in Poland is above 97 pct. Moreover, this rate has increased slightly compared to the previous year.
Importantly, the share of vacant space remains relatively similar regardless of the city, ranging from around 1.5 pct in Szczecin to 4 pct in Wrocław.
Shopping centres are living organisms, where the tenant mix is ​​constantly evolving, hence the slight differences between individual cities. However, as practice shows, in most established centres, vacant units quickly find new tenants.
Of course, there are cases of individual properties where the rate has even exceeded 20 pct, and this is where problems can be seen. These are largely old, small centres whose format and standards have not stood the test of time. These are isolated cases that will likely have to change their usage in the near future.

In turn, for some centres that lost individual tenants during and immediately after the pandemic, the expansion of the non-grery discount stores provided a lifeline, including Pepco, Dealz, Action, and Tedi, which chose to open stores in traditional shopping centres, often even on the first floor, where traffic is typically significantly lower. Often, a way to utilise vacant space is to allocate it to services and entertainment, such as medical centres, gyms, playrooms for children and teenagers, billiard clubs, or dance schools.
Maciej Kotowski

Supply Near Zero

Shopping centre construction remains very limited. No new shopping centres have opened this year. However, one outlet centre has opened in Kraków.

Since the beginning of 2021, a total of seven new shopping centres have been completed, with a total area of ​​just 104,000 sqm. These were Karuzela Kołobrzeg, Galeria Bawełnianka in Bełchatów, Galeria Starówka in Leszno, Sekunda Jędrzejów, Galeria Odyseja in Brzesko, Gwarek Jast Rzebie and Hosso Żary.

At the beginning of August, only around 38,000 sqm remained under construction with seven projects, all of which are expansions and modernisations. This means that no new shopping centres are currently being built in Poland. Construction of Galeria Podhalańska may resume, but the opening date remains unknown. However, expansions are underway at Pogoria in Dąbrowa Górnicza, Tkalnia in Pabianice, Bonarka in Kraków, Galerie Hosso in Police and Świebodzin, Piekary in Legnica, and Swoja Olimpia in Wrocław.

Among the plans for new centres, two projects are under consideration by a single investor: Ceetrus (Nhood), which is planning Wilanów Park Warsaw (jointly with Apsys, 50,000 sqm ) and Projekt Góraszka (40,000 sqm). IWilanów Park currently has a better chance of being the first to open. However, the completion date is 2028 at the earliest. Construction of another large centre before that date is unlikely.

Shopping centres are closing

Between 2015 and 2025, around 50 centres with a total area of ​​almost 900,000 sqm were closed. Besides individual projects, we saw the closure of entire chains of stores and their associated shopping malls (such as the British Tesco chain). This represented a total of 20 centres with a combined 325,000 sqm. In most cases, these centres were replaced by new retail formats, particularly retail parks, often using the former store's footprint, But some sites were converted to other uses such as the Tesco store in Warsaw's Kabaty area, which is being converted into a housing estate.
Among the most significant individual centres that have recently closed are Malta in Poznań, Arkady Wrocławskie, and the Belg shopping centre in Katowice. Closures are also planned for properties such as Klif in Warsaw, Galeria Bemowo, and Galeria Dębiec in Poznań. In most of these cases, the sites will be converted to residential use. Offices are also being added, for example, as a replacement for Galeria Plaza in Kraków.

While in many examples, the change is dictated by the evolution and transformation of the surrounding area, by urbanisation, changing buyer habits, and greater needs for other property uses, for Malta and Arkady Wrocławskie, new competition – Posnania and Wroclavia, respectively – certainly played a significant role. In the case of Klif in Warsaw, the strengthening position of Arkadia, including its increasing number of premium brands, was also a factor. On the other hand, given the growth of the housing market, residential projects often make more sense now. It's also worth noting that most residential projects also include ground-floor retail units that meet the daily needs of residents. According to our study, over 80,000 sqm of such space have been added in Warsaw alone in the last few years.
Maciej Kotowski

Are shopping centers doomed to extinction?

Rumours of the demise of traditional shopping malls as a retail format are definitely premature. On the contrary, in many cases we are witnessing their rebirth in a new form. We are seeing numerous modernisations and expansions, the offerings are constantly being updated, tenants are renovating their stores and introducing new concepts. It is undoubtedly a living organism that is responding to consumer needs. The best centres must have a broad and complementary offering, attracting shoppers with brands, but also with convenience and standards. Furthermore, it is important to remember that tenant mixes include not only stores but also food and beverage and entertainment, which are growing in importance today. Shopping centres are once again becoming places to meet and spend time; they are meant to attract and provide experiences. Customers expect entertainment and an engaging experience from the best facilities, even while doing their regular shopping. This distinguishes and should distinguish shopping centres from unemotional online shopping. Of course, not every centre performs perfectly; there will undoubtedly be occasional closures, especially where the offer is not adapted. New competition, including from retail parks, often poses a significant challenge. The shopping centre market is not homogeneous, but it seems that properly managed and "living" projects have a chance of achieving positive results in the coming years, even despite the rapid growth of the retail park sector.
Maciej Kotowski