Warsaw and Poland’s largest regional cities are expected to remain the strongest office markets as talent, investment and demand for modern workplaces continue to concentrate there. Outside the seven largest metropolitan areas, however, demographic pressure is expected to build more quickly, increasing the risk of structurally higher vacancy as the local workforce and demand shrink.
Office real estate is particularly well positioned to withstand demographic change because the sector is concentrated in the largest metropolitan areas, which are expected to maintain or even increase their populations over the next decade by continuing to attract talent from smaller centres. As a result, demographic trends should not directly threaten the overall volume of office demand.
Piotr Kamiński, head of office leasing, JLL
Flight to quality becomes structural
JLL expects the shift in demand towards the best office buildings to become a structural feature of the market. Well-connected buildings offering high technical standards and workplaces that support employee comfort, concentration and productivity are likely to attract an increasing share of occupier demand.
This trend is particularly visible in Warsaw, where the gap between prime central locations and weaker non-central submarkets is expected to widen. For occupiers, the office is increasingly being viewed not simply as an operating cost but as a tool for attracting and retaining employees.
The pressure on employers is also reflected in recruitment times. According to data cited by JLL, the average time required to recruit specialists increased from 4.5 to 5.4 weeks between 2022 and 2025, an increase of around 20 pct.
An ageing workforce changes office requirements
The median age of workers is expected to rise from around 40.6 to 43.1 years by 2035. At the same time, the number of workers aged over 50 is forecast to increase by 22.6 pct, while the younger talent pool is expected to shrink by 13.5 pct.
This will increase demand for workplaces designed around different working styles, concentration, collaboration and knowledge sharing between generations.
By 2035, office quality will depend on more than location and certification. Demographic change, the development of AI and the increasing cognitive intensity of work will require workplaces to better support different working styles, concentration, collaboration and recovery. Flexible environments designed around the needs of a broader range of employees will become increasingly important.
Jakub Zieliński, senior director, head of wokplace strategy & change management, JLL
Regional markets still have time to adapt
JLL does not expect regional markets to face an immediate decline in office demand. In some secondary cities, office employment could remain stable or grow through 2035, supported by universities, the public sector and business services. However, the consultancy sees this as a window of opportunity rather than a permanent buffer against demographic trends.
AI is also changing the requirements for regional offices. According to data from ABSL cited by JLL, 58.2 pct of processes in the business services sector are now knowledge-intensive, compared with around 48 pct in 2020. The sector employs more than 500,000 people and grew by 1.8 pct year on year in the first quarter of 2026.
The next decade will not bring a simple decline in office demand, but a much deeper selection of assets. Demographics, technology and employee mobility are changing the market at the same time. The resilient buildings will be those combining strong locations with functional flexibility and a standard suited to the needs of the 2035 workforce.
Jan Jakub Zombirt, head of research, JLL
Foreign workers, particularly Ukrainians employed in BPO and SSC clusters, are another factor that could affect individual office markets. JLL estimates that there are around 1.3 mln foreign workers in Poland, with Ukrainians accounting for approximately 70 pct of the total. The potential impact of their return to Ukraine would vary by location, with selected submarkets in Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław more exposed than the market as a whole.
Overall, JLL expects the office market to increasingly favour buildings combining strong locations, adaptability and a high-quality working environment. Owners and investors will therefore need to assess assets not only on current occupancy, but also on their ability to respond to demographic and labour-market changes through 2035.
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