Financing costs have bottomed out

Comment
We still vividly remember the strong inflationary impulse that happened across much of the world in 2022 and 2023 as a result of the pandemic and the military actions of Russia. In some countries, including Poland, additional domestic factors also contributed. As a result, price growth reached levels not seen for many years – in the case of the US, for almost fifty years, and in Poland for more than twenty. The need to combat soaring inflation led to a sharp increase in financing costs.
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At the peak of the fight against inflation, interest rates for euro- and złoty-denominated loans and credit facilities – in the two most important financing currencies for commercial real estate in Poland – converged significantly. Later on, the gap widened again as a result of more substantial rate cuts in the eurozone. This was possible thanks to the rapid easing of inflation across the single currency area. The ECB’s main interest rate fell to 2.15 pct, a level that may be considered the target rate.

In Poland, the process took slightly longer and the country entered 2026 with the main interest rate at 4 pct, while the market expects further cuts – in the most optimistic scenario, by as much as one percentage point.

Just as it seemed that financing costs would remain at these levels for longer – and potentially fall in Poland further due to the prospect of at least one more rate cut – the outbreak of war in Iran triggered renewed inflationary pressures. Today, we have to assume that financing costs in the eurozone will rise over the coming months, while in Poland they are likely, at best, to remain at current levels.

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