Poland Market continues to hold steady

The outlook for 2025 also remains positive, with approx. 2 mln sqm of new completions scheduled for delivery this year, total take-up expected to surpass 5 mln sqm and the overall vacancy rate continuing to trend downwards.

At the end of 2024, Poland’s total warehouse and industrial stock stood at over 34.5 mln sqm, marking an 8.9 pct year-on-year increase. Total new supply for the year surpassed 2.6 mln sqm, down by nearly 30 pct from the previous year.

Following its rapid expansion in 2014-2023, with annual growth averaging 15 pct, Poland’s warehouse and industrial market has smoothly transitioned into a stable growth phase. While it expanded by just under 9 pct in 2024, it is expected to experience steady growth of less than 10 pct in the coming years. Poland’s total warehouse and industrial stock is on course to top 35 mln sqm in the first quarter of 2025 before surpassing the 36 or 37 mln sqm mark by the end of December, assuming this year’s total new supply reaches at least 2.5 mln sqm.
Jakub Kurek, head of Industrial and Warehouse, Newmark Polska

Last year’s total take-up in the Polish warehouse and industrial market topped 5.8 mln sqm, a 3.7 pct increase year-on-year. Occupier and developer activity focused on the six key warehouse markets (Warsaw and its suburbs, Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Lower Silesia, Greater Poland and Tricity), which together accounted for over 85 pct of the total leasing volume for 2024.

Supply and warehouse space under construction

More than 2.6 mln sqm of modern warehouse and industrial space was delivered to the Polish market throughout 2024. The most active development regions were Lower Silesia, Mazovia and Łódzkie, which saw 674,550 sqm, 468,300 sqm and 342,900 sqm built respectively.

At the end of Q4 2024, there was nearly 1.76 mln sqm of warehouse and industrial space under construction. The largest volumes of new developments were underway in Upper Silesia (383,000 sqm), Lower Silesia (344,200 sqm), Central Poland (232,250 sqm) and Mazovia (206,500 sqm). Overall, Poland’s six core industrial regions accounted for almost 82 pct of the country’s development pipeline.

Tenant activity on the warehouse and industrial market in Poland

More than 5.8 mln sqm of warehouse and industrial space (excluding short-term leases) was transacted throughout Poland in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 pct. It was the third-highest take-up in the history of Poland’s industrial market. The provinces with the highest leasing activity were Mazovia, Łódzkie, Lower Silesia and Upper Silesia, which accounted for 23.7 pct, 17.2 pct, 15.3 pct and 14.3 pct of the total take-up respectively.

The demand structure for the whole of 2024 was dominated by new leases, including contracts to deliver BTS projects, which accounted for 51.4 pct of all deals. Renewals also had a large share of last year’s take-up at 41.8 pct, while expansions made up the remaining 6.8 pct. It is also worth noting that nearly 244,000 sqm was transacted in 2024 under short-term leases of up to one year.

The largest letting of 2024 was an e-commerce company’s deal for 126,000 sqm at Panattoni Park Wrocław Logistics South Hub, followed by Oponeo’s renewal and expansion of its lease for over 105,700 sqm at Hillwood Stryków II. Another notable transaction saw LPP Logistics lease an almost 104,000 sqm BTS facility at Bydgoszcz Białe Błota Logistics Centre.

Warehouses to lease

According to Newmark Polska, the available space comprised nearly 2.6 mln sqm in ready-to-occupy buildings and just over 830,500 sqm under construction.

At the end of Q4 2024, Poland’s overall vacancy rate stood at 7.5 pct, up by 0.1 pp year-on-year. The highest vacancy rates were in Lubuskie (19.0 pct), Świętokrzyskie (16.9 pct) and Lubelskie (12.5 pct), while the lowest were recorded in Podlaskie (no vacant space), Warmia-Masuria (2.3 pct) and Opolskie (2.4 pct).

Rents

In 2024, prime warehouse and industrial rents remained largely unchanged. However, in locations with high vacancy rates, tenants were able to secure lower rental rates and more attractive incentive packages. By contrast, landlords of high-quality warehouses featuring energy efficient and sustainable technologies were less willing to make concessions. The highest rents were recorded in Warsaw (zone 1), Pomerania, and Lesser Poland.

Investment market

In 2024, Poland’s total commercial property investment volume surpassed EUR 5 bln, representing a year-on-year increase of over 138 pct. There were 29 transactions in the industrial investment market for a combined value of EUR 1.26 bln, a year-on-year increase of nearly 31 pct.

The two largest transactions to complete in 2024 were for over EUR 130 mln each. One involved the Czech fund Investika acquiring several warehouses from 7R, while the other saw Greykite purchase part of White Star’s asset portfolio.

Poland’s commercial real estate market is experiencing a notable recovery in 2025, following a downturn in investment activity. The outlook for this year remains optimistic – falling interest rates in the eurozone are encouraging investors to seek investment opportunities while favourable macroeconomic forecasts for Poland further bolster positive market prospects. The industrial and logistics sector continues to attract strong investor interest, with its growth driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the ongoing trend of production reshoring. Additionally, sustainability and ESG certification are playing an increasingly important role in investment decision-making. As a result, properties that meet high environmental and technological standards are increasing in value, solidifying their market position.
Urszula Sobczyk, head of Valuation, Newmark Polska

Market trends

Modern industrial stock is undoubtedly the greatest advantage of the Polish market, with nearly three-quarters of existing facilities at the end of 2024 being less than 10 years old and over 46 pct aged five or less. This is highly valued by developers, investors and tenants alike.

The need for more efficient warehouse space utilization and improved productivity results in more investment in automation and new warehouse technologies. Additionally, growing environmental awareness and a focus on sustainability are driving companies to invest in green logistics and warehouses which are more energy-efficient and eco-friendly.
Agnieszka Giermakowska, Research & Advisory director, ESG lead, Newmark Polska