Poland Warehousing stays strong

The total stock of modern space reached 36.58 mln sqm at the end of 2025, with new supply declining to 1.68 mln sqm. Gross demand increased to 6.64 mln sqm, the third-highest figure in market history, and the vacancy rate remained stable at 7.4 pct. Meanwhile, the warehouse sector achieved the second-highest result in the investment market, with transactions closing at EUR 1.5 bln.

The warehouse sector is entering a phase of greater selectivity. We observe a sustained high share of renegotiations in the demand structure, a control of speculative supply, and a concentration of investments in the most liquid markets, namely Mazovia, Silesia, and the Łódź region. At the same time, the importance of cross-border hubs and ports such as Tricity and Szczecin, supported by the development of transport infrastructure, is growing. "In 2026, the key factors for sector growth will be the recovery in European industry and domestic consumption.
Monika Rykowska, director of market research and analysis at Axi Immo

Demand: Third-highest figures ever

In 2025, 6.64 mln sqm of leased space was recorded in the industrial and logistics market (+14 pct year-on-year). Renegotiations reached a record high of 3.46 mln sqm, accounting for 52 pct of total demand (+10 percentage points year-on-year). The highest tenant activity was recorded in the Mazovia province. The largest lease transactions in 2025 include the extension and expansion of the Agata Meble chain in Mapletree Piotrków II (totalling 128,200 sqm), the extension of the 78,100 sqm lease by logistics operator ID Logistics in P3 Wrocław II, and two new leases: 67,800 sqm. "The 3PL company signed a new lease at 7R Park Gdańsk III, and the automotive company Schaeffler signed a new lease at Prologis Park Ujazd (63,400 sqm).

The demand structure in 2025 confirms the increasing maturity of the Polish market. Renegotiations of five-year leases concluded in 2021-2022 have become the dominant component of tenant activity. In 2026, new demand will result from both expansion in selected industries and the need to consolidate space or relocate to optimize operating costs. We see increased activity from companies in the retail, e-commerce, and distribution sectors, with a moderate recovery in demand from logistics operators.
Anna Głowacz, director of industrial and logistics, Axi Immo.

Supply: Lowest Level Since 2016

Total modern warehouse space at the end of December 2025 reached 36.58 mln sqm. (+6 pct year-on-year), while Axi Immo believes new supply in 2025 will fall to 1.68 mln sqm (-35 pct year-on-year), marking the lowest level since 2016.

Among the largest selected new investments were P3 Wrocław (95,000 sqm) in the Lower Silesian Voivodeship and Hillwood Poznań-Czempiń (53,700 sqm) in the Greater Poland Voivodeship. In markets outside the so-called Big Five, noteworthy are 7R Park Lublin (57,500 sqm) in the Lublin Voivodeship and Panattoni Park Szczecin-Dunikowo (54,400 sqm) in the West Pomeranian Voivodeship.

1.79 mln sqm (+2 pct year-on-year) remain under construction, with a significant reduction in speculative projects to 38.6 pct. (690,000 sqm, -8.6 percentage points year-on-year). The largest number of investments are being carried out in the Masovian Voivodeship (648,000 sqm), Pomeranian Voivodeship (221,000 sqm), and Silesian Voivodeship (192,000 sqm). Developers are contingent on pre-lease agreements of 40–50 pct to launch new projects.

The vacancy rate at the end of 2025 was 7.4 pct (-0.1 percentage points year-on-year). The lowest availability levels were recorded in the West Pomeranian Voivodeship (1.2 pct) and Lesser Poland Voivodeship (2.6 pct), among others, while the highest vacancy rate increase was observed in the Silesian Voivodeship (+2.3 percentage points year-on-year).

Base rents in big-box projects remained in the EUR 3.6–6.0/sqm/month range, with effective rents ranging from EUR 3.0–4.5/sqm/month. Competition shifted to incentive packages including one or two months of rent holidays for each year of the lease.

Investment market: EUR 1.5 bln and strong sale & leaseback

Investment transaction volume in the warehouse and manufacturing sector reached EUR 1.5 bln (+15 pct year-on-year), representing 34 pct of the total investment volume in Poland and the second-largest share among the real estate sectors.

Commercial real estate. Single-asset and sale-and-leaseback transactions dominated. In 2025, investors from the US and the Czech Republic played a significant role.

The warehouse sector remains one of the most stable segments of the investment market. In 2025, we observed a significant increase in activity in sale-and-leaseback transactions, reflecting the need for manufacturing companies to free up capital. In 2026, we expect further improvement in liquidity and a slight compression of yields for prime assets with long leases.
Grzegorz Chmielak, head of capital markets, Axi Immo

2026 Forecast

Axi Immo analysts assume a stable level of new supply, a gradual decline in vacancy rates, and selective rent increases in prime locations. Renegotiations will remain the dominant element of the demand structure, and new projects will be largely linked to expansions and consolidations.

The Polish warehouse market confirmed its maturity and resilience to economic fluctuations in 2025. High demand, controlled supply, and growing investor activity create a stable foundation for the sector's further development. We expect the positive trend to continue, driven by the increase in transaction volume in the investment market, including portfolio transactions. Infrastructure investments, nearshoring, and the growing importance of technical quality and ESG standards will be key in 2026. Poland remains one of the most promising warehouse markets in Europe.
Renata Osiecka, owner and managing partner of Axi Immo