Poland Falling vacancies, limited new space

The trends seen in the second half of last year continued into the first quarter of 2026 in the Polish warehouse and logistics market. Although renewals declined marginally after the record-breaking 2025, momentum was maintained with new demand, driven largely by the expansion of logistics operators and the unwavering appetite of Asian platforms.

At the same time, the volume of space delivered and under construction remained limited, which, as expected, translated into a further decline in the vacancy rate. Simultaneously, the Polish warehouse investment market came to an exceptional high in the first quarter of 2026, with transaction volume reaching EUR 450 mln – the strongest start to the year in six years and the second-best first quarter in history.

Stable New Demand

In Q1 2026, total gross take up in Poland reached approximately 1.6 mln sqm, while the structure remained relatively stable. New agreements and expansions accounted for around 54 pct, outpacing renewals this quarter. Furthermore, the market was further fueled by further sale and leaseback transactions. Market maturity and improving economic indicators provide a basis for greater predictability, which, unlike temporary fluctuations, should be noticed and appreciated by developers and the investment market.

Poland is strengthening its position in Europe not only through transaction volume but, above all, through the quality of decisions made. We see tenants increasingly moving away from short-term cost-cutting toward building long-term operational stability. Their strategies are no longer focused solely on rents, but also on real energy efficiency, the quality of the working environment, as well as the flexibility and potential of the centre to adapt to future technologies. Operational security has become more valuable than the lowest rent.
Tomasz Mika, head of industrial agency, JLL

Vacancy Rate: Downward Trajectory Maintained

With development still limited and new demand remaining stable, the vacancy rate has further declined. At the end of March 2026, it stood at approximately 7.1 pct, with the available space still slowly being absorbed.

Supply: Developers Remain Very Cautious

Around 650,000 sqm of new space was delivered in the first quarter of 2026. On the other hand, developers launched only 320,000 sqm of new projects, placing additional pressure on the absorption of existing vacant space.

Projects under construction are primarily those secured by pre-let agreements (lease agreements signed before the completion of a building), which account for over 60 pct of the 1.5 mln sqm of total construction volume. Developers remain cautious about launching new projects, focusing primarily on commercialising their existing stock and their projects in prime locations. Although the market still offers a range of expansion opportunities, a limited selection of large units immediately available is becoming increasingly evident in key locations. This is particularly true for modern parks that meet high technical and ESG standards. Although the vacancy rate of 7.1 pct translates to approximately 2.7 mln sqm nationwide, it's important to remember that these are mostly small, scattered units. Realistically, when considering leasing space over 30,000 sqm immediately, tenants have only a few options to choose from, and a longer list will only open up in the next 9-12 months.
Maciej Kotowski, research director, JLL

Rents: Stabilization with Pressure in Prime Locations

In the first quarter of 2026, headline rents remained stable in most major industrial markets. At the same time, continued limited development activity and decreasing availability of prime units are beginning to increase rental pressure in selected locations.

Outlook for the coming quarters

Another driver for the market will be the growing Asian e-commerce platforms in Europe and the activity of companies related to nearshoring (i.e., the relocation of production facilities to Europe).

Continued caution from developers may lead to a more significant reduction in the availability of modern warehouse space in selected regions of the country. This is particularly true for large units in prime logistics locations, which are already relatively difficult to access.

We are entering a period of market paradox. We are seeing growing demand and an appetite for development from tenants, which contrasts with the considerable caution shown by developers in launching new projects. This growing imbalance, if sustained, will directly translate into a reduced availability of modern space in the most desirable locations. The market has lost its sense of choice, and a race against time has begun.
Tomasz Mika.

Investment Recovery

The Polish warehouse investment market began 2026 with great momentum, recording EUR 450 mln in transaction volumes in the first quarter. This was the highest Q1 figure in six years and the second-best first quarter in the market's history. Nine transactions were completed over the quarter, with the three largest accounting for 72 pct of the total volume. Assets with long leases – including sale and leaseback transactions – accounted for approximately 85 pct of invested capital in the first quarter.

The market is clearly divided into two segments. Assets with long leases, including sale and leaseback transactions, which form the foundation of the market, are experiencing yield compression due to strong investor demand and limited supply. On the other hand, multi-let properties remain under price pressure due to oversupply and a limited number of buyers.

In an environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Poland stands out for its solid macroeconomic fundamentals, attracting the attention of international investors. The strong start to the year confirms the growing interest in the Polish warehouse market. The diversified investor base, encompassing capital from the United States, France, and the CEE region, and the growing number of transaction structures, including sale and leasebacks, indicate the market's maturity and liquidity. The projected improvement in the rental market should increase the investment attractiveness of multi-let projects with shorter lease terms. At the same time, the continued strong interest in assets with long leases, which remain the foundation of the market, will continue to support investor activity. As a result, we predict that the total investment volume in the warehouse sector in 2026 may exceed EUR 2 bln.
Michał Mania, senior capital markets director, JLL