You have been active in the warehouse market for many years, giving you both the right and privilege to offer your perspective on its progress. From your point of view, especially regarding logistics properties, how much has the commercial real estate market changed in recent decades?
Paweł Sapek, SVP and regional head, Central Europe, Prologis: Over the past two decades, the logistics real estate market in Poland has undergone a tremendous transformation. When I transitioned from the construction sector to commercial real estate 20 years ago, you could literally count the number of warehouse facilities in Poland on one hand. Today, we’re talking about a market approaching 35 mln sqm – a scale that would have been difficult to imagine back then. However, the most significant change, in my view, didn’t take place during those early years of growth. It actually occurred relatively recently – within the last three years. That was when the market reached maturity. For the first time in a very long while – perhaps in over a decade – we’ve witnessed a real increase in rents. This is a fundamental shift because it means that rising property values are no longer solely based on yield compression but are now also driven by genuine improvements in operating fundamentals. From my perspective, this is the biggest sign of the market’s evolution: a move away from the old “give-it-away-for-free” mentality and towards a much more rational approach to the value, potential and future of warehouse assets. The market has matured – and this marks a whole new chapter in its story.
Could you point to a warehouse or logistics park that, in your opinion, was the ‘top of the table’ at the beginning of the century? How have these top-tier investments changed since then?
For anyone who’s been working in this sector over the years, the most iconic properties are often those they’ve had the opportunity to be directly involved with. One such project for me – both professionally and emotionally – is still Tulipan Park Gliwice. It was the first development that my team and I delivered in Silesia as part of Segro. I was building that team from scratch at the time. It’s the perfect example of a property that remains strong thanks to its location. And if we look at its total return over the last 20 years, I believe the figures would be very impressive. Another property that has always commanded my great respect and admiration is Prologis Park Wrocław III, located right next to the city’s airport. The brilliant master plan, very well-thought-out building layout, and excellent location make it, for me, a true benchmark of a class A facility. I’ve had the pleasure of managing this park with the team for the past eleven years. It’s a project that has consistently had high occupancy, maintained strong rental levels, and has provided space for further expansion – we’ve even added another building, which only goes to show its potential.
The last few years have been marked by some immense global upheavals – from the pandemic to the war over our eastern border – and this has impacted almost every aspect of life. And yet, for the logistics sector, these turned out to be significant catalysts for growth. Do you believe anything else could drive further dramatic change in the market?
Recent years have given us a stark reminder of something we’ve always known as an industry: commercial real estate is cyclical. We’ve seen the ups and downs for decades – but it’s the pace of these cycles that is changing now. In my opinion, we’re entering a phase where the periods of relative stability between turning points will become increasingly shorter. We shouldn’t expect multi-year periods of calm anymore. Events impacting the market will occur in quicker succession, and each shift will be layered over by the next. This demands a fundamentally different approach to managing property portfolios. Today, adaptability is crucial. We need to build teams and structures capable of responding with agility – adjusting quickly to new conditions and operating effectively in a constantly changing environment. The only certainty we can have about the future is that change will be more frequent and more rapid than in the past.
