Poland Investment recovers

Despite this, investors are increasingly returning from the CEE region. Warehousing remains the leading sector, accounting for almost half of the transaction volume.

Investors return with economic improvement

The Polish economy continues to grow steadily – forecasts project GDP growth of 3.4 pct in 2025 and 3.2 pct in 2026. Consumer spending with rising real household incomes, remains the key driver behind the growth. Following a temporary decline in foreign direct investment (app. USD 12.74 billion in 2024, compared to USD 28.36 billion a year earlier), investment activity is expected to accelerate significantly, fueled by EU funds and a recovery in exports.

Monetary easing continues in the financial market – a 50 basis point cut was made in May, followed by another 25 basis point cut in July. The current reference rate is 5 pct. Further cuts are likely, given stable inflation (3.6 pct in 2024, with a forecast of 3.9 pct) and a positive economic outlook. The European Central Bank began a series of cuts in February, and the most recent one in June brings the refinancing rate to 2.15 pct. Lower financing costs could translate into greater liquidity and investor activity in the real estate market.

The investment market is stabilising, and investor activity is gradually increasing. In addition to capital seeking stable, long-term assets, investors are increasingly interested in projects with the potential to redevelop, reposition, or repurpose buildings.
Mark Richardson, head of investment, Savills.

Logistics in the Lead

In Q2 2025, the transaction volume in the Polish real estate market came to EUR 911 mln – 45 pct more than in the previous quarter, but 33 pct less than during the same period a year earlier. In the entire first half of the year, investments reached EUR 1.53 bln, a 10 pct year-on-year decline. The increase in investment from April to the end of June was primarily driven by the warehouse sector, which recorded the largest transaction: the sale of two Eko-Okna production plants for over EUR 253 mln.

Total office investment increased moderately to EUR 227 mln in Q2 ( EUR 411 mln in the entire first half), but this is still half the figure of a year earlier. The retail market saw a 30 pct decline, with transactions worth EUR 133 mln concluded in Q2, bringing the total for H1 to EUR 324 mln. This is 26 pct below the 2020-2025 average, confirming the challenges and changes inherent to the retail market, as well as increased investor activity in smaller retail parks and convenience stores. Although the total investment volume in H1 was only one-third of the total for 2024, the number of transactions was high – 59 agreements were concluded, already representing 48 pct of the contracts signed in the previous year. Most of these were for relatively small assets, with an average transaction value of EUR 26 mln.

Investors from the US dominated, with over 31 pct of the volume, followed by Western Europe and Nordic countries (20 pct). Investors from the CEE region (including Ukraine) approached 37 pct.

The first half of the year saw significant activity from regional and domestic investors, particularly in smaller-scale transactions. Sale and leaseback transactions are also noteworthy. A return to value-add strategies is also evident, demonstrating investors' growing willingness to engage in more demanding yet promising projects. The market is becoming increasingly diverse and mature.
Wioleta Wojtczak, associate director, head of research, Savills

Offices are cautiously returning

From January to June, 23 office market transactions were concluded in Poland, with a total value of over EUR 411 mln. This represents 52 pct of the total number of transactions in 2024, but only 25 pct of their value, demonstrating increasing activity coupled with a decline in average volumes. The average value of a single office transaction was approximately EUR 18 mln – EUR 8 mln less than the average value of a single building sale in the previous year.

Three of the five largest transactions involved properties in Warsaw, with the other two being in Kraków and Wrocław respectively, and the sixth largest was in Szczecin. The largest deals were signed by foreign investors (including Uniqa Real Estate and Stena Real Estate), but domestic investors also took a significant market share. They accounted for 42 pct of the transaction volume with disclosed capital origins. Yields for prime office buildings in central Warsaw are currently estimated at around 6 pct. The yield differential for such properties compared to prime properties outside city centres or in regional cities reaches 125-150 basis points.

Retail Sticks with Small Formats

The retail real estate market saw 20 transactions, totaling over EUR 324.4 mln. The average value of a single deal was just over EUR 16 mln, confirming continued investor interest in smaller projects, primarily retail parks and convenience centres, which accounted for half of the completed transactions. Three transactions involved property portfolios, including the purchase of ten A-Centrum properties by the Czech group Reticulum. The remaining transactions involved vacant properties with potential for redevelopment or modernisation. An example is the Arkady Wrocławskie shopping and office centre, which will be demolished as planned, where the new owner, Vastint, will develop a mixed-use project.

Domestic investors accounted for the nine transactions that made up 25 pct of the total volume. Capital from the Czech Republic and Ukraine generated a staggering 39 pct of the volume in just four transactions. Further deals are expected by the end of the year, not only in the retail park segment but also for large regional shopping centres. Yields for the best shopping centres in Poland are estimated at 6.25-6.50 pct, although properties with a strong market position may achieve lower values. In the case of retail parks, they range between 7 and 8 pct, depending on location, competition, and tenant quality.

Record Volumes in Warehouses

The warehouse sector accounts for 45 pct of the total investment volume in the first half of 2025, generating EUR 694 mln across twelve transactions. This is almost two and a half times higher than during the same period of the previous year. The increase is due to the sale of the Eko-Okna plant (over 36 pct of the volume) and the purchase of a portfolio of four properties by the Adventum Industrial fund. Investors focused in this sector are becoming increasingly selective, preferring stable assets with long leases (WAULTs exceeding ten years). As much as 64 pct of the capital came from the US, clearly outperforming investors from the Czech Republic (12.5 pct) and Hungary (10.2 pct).

Yields for prime warehouse assets remain stable at 6.25–6.50 pct. Expected further interest rate cuts will impact financing costs and, as a result, could further increase investor activity in this segment.

Living, a Niche with Potential

The institutional rental sector remains a niche compared to traditional commercial markets. In the first half of 2025, only three transactions were completed, with a total value of EUR 86.5 mln. Two of these were pre-finished student housing projects acquired by the Belgian company Xior (in Warsaw and Wrocław), while the third was a joint PRS project in Kraków, developed by Eiffage Immobilier Polska and LifeSpot Management.

In the first half of the year, the living sector recorded three transactions. It's still a niche, but it's becoming increasingly visible, and the activity of players like Xior and LifeSpot demonstrates growing interest from foreign capital – notably, also in regional cities. Demographic factors, migration, and changing lifestyles among the younger generation will drive the growth of this segment in the coming years. If a portion of the Resi4Rent portfolio is acquired, it will be an important signal to the market, confirming its liquidity.
Jacek Kałużny, director and head of operational capital markets, Savills.

Prime yields for PBSA projects are estimated at approximately 6 pct, while for PRS it stands at 5.5 pct for residential plots and approximately 6 pct for commercial properties.