On pessimists and optimists

the only difference between optimism and pessimism is the date of the end of the world. "Is there a crisis?" "Yes, it started in the summer of last year." "How long will it last?" "I don't know, but if I knew the answer to this question, I would probably be very wise or very stupid." "And I thought you would say very rich," - this was the conclusion of my conversation with Michał Sołowow, one of Poland's wealthiest individuals, which is featured in the latest issue of this magazine. More seriously: "We will reach the bottom in Q1, then we will start bouncing back. But this bounce will not be quick. We will not return to the path of economic growth at levels of 3 or 4 pct. However, there is a good chance that growth will be around 2 pct at the very end of 2013," - was the optimistic prognosis of Maciej Reluga, the chief economist at Bank Zachodni WBK, an optimist by nature, who came first in a ranking of macroeconomic forecasts with this exceptionally pessimistic prediction. And finally: "The year 2013 will be a year of truth. In our opinion the market is going through its cleansing phase. It might last a year or perhaps four years," - this was how the market situation was summed up by Mieczysław Godzisz, the president of the management board of Hines Polska in another conversation with me. Three quotations and three different outlooks for the future of the property market. I recommend all of them, but with the proviso that you are reading them at your own risk - because, to paraphrase the words of Czech writer Karel Čapek: a well-informed optimist is none other than... a pessimist.