The butterfly effect

“If it’s winter, it should be cold, right? Mrs Manager, this is the eternal law of nature!” argued the boiler stoker in the classic Polish film Miś (Teddy Bear). However, you don’t have to be a particularly avid observer to have noticed that lately in our latitude it no longer has to be cold in winter and the climate has become less predictable. On a number of recent occasions there have been White Easters that have followed Christmases when the snow had stubbornly refused to fall. And if this happens again this year, the two holidays could even become less distinct, when Easter aptly falls on April Fools’ Day. It’s still too early to make any confident weather forecasts for Easter, since long term forecasts are particularly susceptible to their initial conditions. Even to the extent that the Easter weather could be determined by the number of fireworks on New Year’s Eve – or even by just one of the fireworks. However, there is one sure