Tilting at windmills

Back in 2018, the Polish government announced that all wind farms in the country would be scrapped by 2035, but since then it has performed something of a U-turn. Not only is it planning to introduce legislation to ease the construction of wind farms in Poland, but currently plans are afoot to turn the Baltic sea into a massive power generating plant – with government owned firms, such as petrochemical company PKN Orlen and PGE, being among the frontrunners to install offshore turbines.

Don’t stand so close to me

Although such projects in the sea are now picking up pace, the situation back on land does not look so rosy. “While offshore development seems promising, it is quite disheartening to see that current legislation is still hampering the development of onshore projects. The current restrictions – the so-called 10H distance act – prohibit the development of onshore projects on 99.7 pct of Poland’s territory. The rule introduced in 2016 is simple: no onshore wind turbine can be built at a distance to any inhabited building less ten times the turbine’s height,” complains Małgorzata Kasprzak, a junior research analyst at independent energy think tank Ember. [After talking with her for this article, she has since moved on to a new position responsible for the EC] This point is echoed by the power generators themselves: “The current legislative framework does not allow wind farms to be erected close to other buildings. In Poland, where settlement is dispersed, it is almost impossible to find an area suitable for locating a new wind farm,” points out Maciej Gelberg, the press spokesperson of PGE Energia Odnawialna, the renewable energy division of state-owned electricity company PGE. The company now operates 17 wind farms with a combined capacity of 683,160 MW. Indeed, according to the Polish Wind Energy Association, this is the main reason for the lack of the further development of wind turbines. “The main reason wind power is developing so slowly is that in 2016 our government-imposed regulations blocking the development of onshore wind farms. They introduced the 10H distance rule, which is that the distance to the nearest buildings must be at least ten times that of the total height of the turbine, which is normally about one and a half kilometres. But there are too many buildings and so it’s not possible to find such places. Now we are working on relaxing this rule. We’ve put in a lot of effort in to try and convince the government. It is currently working on a new act to change this rule, but it’s going slowly due to a government reshuffle. But it has declared that the rule will be relaxed, so we are expecting this draft to be adopted soon,” points out Kamila Tarnacka, the vice-president of the Polish Wind Energy Association. The government’s previous reluctance to promote wind energy had been motivated by its unwillingness to lose political support in the coal producing areas of Silesia. But the situation is clearly changing. “State-owned companies have started to enter this business and they’ve brought with them a lot of green projects. They are now negotiating with the those who mine coal, which means people from Silesia. There are a lot of people in this industry and they need to find other jobs for them, so the government is trying to find a solution to this issue. I think at the beginning it was the pressure from the EU that changed their thinking, but now there are other reasons,” believes Kamila Tarnacka. Małgorzata Kasprzak of Ember seems far less impressed: “The government is now seeking to change the rules to allow projects to go ahead if local communities decide that they’re ok with them. And while public approval is needed, the shape of the proposed legislation is, in my opinion, still too complex and may not be enough to unlock the entire potential of onshore wind energy as fast as it’s needed for a successful energy transition. Revising the 10H rule is a must to release the full potential of Poland’s onshore wind, as currently there has been almost no investment in this technology,” she insists.

The times they are a-changing

Despite the evident foot-dragging by the authorities, the industry feels certain that the restrictions will soon be lifted. “I am confident that the 10H rule will be considerably softened later this year. It’s worth remembering that it harms more than just the wind power industry. It is also a huge setback for local communities, because residents cannot, for example, enlarge their homes or farms that fall within its range of impact,” claims Lidia Paczkowska, a member of the board of Sabowind Polska in the ‘Onshore Wind Energy report 2021’ published jointly by PWEA, TPA Poland and DWF. No one should be surprised that the experts are somewhat disappointed by the development so far. “So far we’ve developed more than 7 GW onshore and around 3 GW is under development – and that’s not much. Onshore capacity is developing too slowly in Poland. According to our research, the potential is around 22–24 GW in total,” points out Małgorzata Kasprzak of Ember.

Wind power generation is clearly cheaper than more traditional methods of electricity generation. “Wind farms certainly are very effective and generate cheap energy. The best way to compare the economics of various energy sources is to calculate their LCOE [the levelised cost of electricity]. The onshore wind-sector scores very highly – both now and in future projections,” reveals Maciej Gelberg of PGE Energia Odnawialna. Kamila Tarnacka of PWEA agrees: “Energy from onshore wind farms is much cheaper than from traditional power plants – around EUR 40–50 per megawatt hour. With a new coal-fired power plant, it’s somewhere around EUR 100 per megawatt hour. I’m not talking about electricity from old power plants, because they need to buy CO2 allowances and each week the price is higher and higher. This topic is being debated all the time because it’s a kind of artificial price, but this is the cost of keeping these plants,” she says. Polish power generation, however, remains dominated by coal-fired power stations. According to the draft Energy Policy of Poland to 2040, the share of coal and lignite in electricity generation will be reduced from just under 80 pct in 2017 to 60 pct by 2030. According to the International Energy Agency: “The draft policy also places priority on long-term energy security, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, increasing energy efficiency and decarbonising the transport system. Nuclear power could play a significant role in the country’s energy supply and plans are being drawn up to open its first nuclear generation plant.”

Although the development of land-based wind farms currently appears stymied, it’s a whole different story when we look at the Baltic sea. “Centrally-planned offshore development receives not only way more attention, but we are also seeing real progress with project development – we now have over 9 GW of approved projects and there are a lot of technical discussions about, for example, choosing the port for the turbines,” claims Małgorzata Kasprzak of Ember. Although nothing has been built yet, Kamila Tarnacka of PWEA’s enthusiasm about the development of such facilities is rather more muted: “Last year the Offshore Act was passed, which allows for the construction of offshore wind farms. Now we have companies preparing the first projects, with the first phase to be constructed by the end of 2030 with around 6 GW. Now these projects have been granted state aid and they are about to start construction. We expect further auctions in 2025 and the aim according to government document is 11 GW by 2040, which we don’t think is enough. We hope this number is going to increase because we believe the potential is also higher,” she says. In June this year, the Energy Regulatory Office awarded Baltic Power, a joint venture of PKN Orlen and Canada-based company Northland Power, the right to develop its 1.2 GW Baltic Power project. Under the 25-year agreement, a minimum price has been guaranteed for the electricity generated. Similar contracts were awarded earlier to the 1 GW Baltica 3 and 1.5 GW Baltica 2 offshore wind projects to be developed by Ørsted and PGE, the 350 MW FEW Baltic II offshore wind project by Baltic Trade and Invest (a subsidiary of the German energy company RWE), as well as to Equinor and Polenergia for their Bałtyk II and Bałtyk III projects, which will have a combined capacity of 1,440 MW.

Get yourself connected

Despite this sudden burst of activity on the sea, serious doubts remain about whether all of these installations can be connected up to the national grid. “Another issue is grid connection. Due to the lower efficiency of solar and wind sources, more megawatts of power need to be installed as compared to fossil fuel power plants, and this requires a more productive grid,” admits Maciej Gelberg of PGE Energia Odnawialna. The PWEA seem sceptical whether any required new capacity will ever be added to the grid: “Right now we don’t have enough connectivity for all the projects under preparation. We are supporting a measure that has now been approved by the government for cable pooling, which means that several installations will share one connection to the grid. There has even been the problem of new projects blocking the capacity for other projects to connect up. These projects don’t use their full capacity all the time, so the solution has been for them to share their capacity and their connection. We are not satisfied with our dialogue with the grid operator, which has declared that everything will be ready, but it is also a concern for us whether they will be able to deliver for the offshore wind farms that are to be constructed in the Baltic sea. The cable to the land is to be laid by the operator, but we would still like to know that the grid operator will provide the connection capacity on land. We have signed agreements, but there are so many provisions that allow them to delay or reduce the capacity that we are not sure they will deliver until we see it,” points out Kamila Tarnacka of PWEA.

No one believes that Poland’s power grid can be completely supplied by green energy. The wind does not blow all the time and the sun does not shine at night. “But these are not critical factors,” says Kamila Tarnacka of PWEA, who adds: “In the Baltic the wind is stable and blows 90 pct of the time throughout the year. The system cannot be completely based on green sources, so we also need some conventional power plants, but it’s not as big a problem as critics would have you believe.” Nonetheless, a green power grid would require more traditional power stations to make up for any shortfalls in power generation. Another solution to this problem could also be the development of battery technology. “If we want to have an economy based on green energy, we need to have battery magazines – this is the future. I know the costs of batteries are high at the moment, but they will decrease with scale,” points out Kamila Tarnacka of PWEA. These are, however, questions for the future and although the situation appears to be improving, the prospects for wind power in Poland have until recently been pretty bleak. “Between 2015 and 2020, not much has changed in terms of generating electricity from the wind,” admits Małgorzata Kasprzak of Ember.