Poland Entering a two-tier market

The fourth quarter was also a period when buyers became accustomed to price transparency. On the one hand, price differentiation increased, while on the other, developers felt a decline in demand as they began receiving fewer inquiries. The fourth quarter of 2025 brought a revival, but at the same time deepened the market's division into two groups of cities with different types of markets. Although sales data shows growth, the number of apartments introduced to the market also increased. The pool of completed apartments also increased. According to JLL data, their number in the seven largest markets increased by 46 pct during the quarter at more than 14,000 units, representing around 20 pct of the total sales stock.

The increase in the number of completed apartments on offer results from decisions made by developers at the beginning of 2024 when a significant number of new projects launched in response to demand generated by the "Safe 2 pct Credit" programme and in preparation for its successor, "Mieszkanie na Start." Construction on these projects has now been completed, but the slowdown in sales since the first quarter of 2024 has resulted in some of these units still being on sale.
Aleksandra Gawrońska, director of the housing market research department at JLL.

Developers' supply policies over the past two years have not had a single, simple explanation; they were the result of diverse strategies and conditions.

Some companies launched new projects, hoping for the introduction of another government programme to stimulate demand. Meanwhile, large companies, striving to maintain overall sales volume, increased the number of apartments on offer to compensate for the decline in transactions within individual projects. Other developers were counting on rapid interest rate cuts at the end of last year, which were expected to accelerate the sale of completed units. Finally, for some companies, launched construction out of financial necessity, dictated by loan obligations incurred for land purchases.
Aleksandra Gawrońska

Sales improved over the fourth quarter of 2025,. Compared to the same period of the previous year, quarterly sales in the seven largest cities increased by almost 15 pct. Annual sales of nearly 43,000 units are a far cry from the records from 2016–2019, but significantly better than during the crisis periods. The largest year-on-year sales increases were recorded in the Tri-City and Warsaw – by 20 pct and 10 pct, respectively. In the remaining large markets, the 2025 results were similar to the previous year.

A key factor shaping the market in 2025 was the monetary policy easing. A series of interest rate cuts led to a total reduction of 175 basis points – from 5.75 pct to 4.00 pct. This change gradually translated into lower financing costs for property purchases and improved buyers' creditworthiness. Buyer activity was already visible in the fourth quarter, but the full effects of these decisions should be felt over the next 12 months. Additionally, a release of some pent-up demand is expected from buyers who had previously held off on purchasing while awaiting government support.

While sales in every major market were on an upward trend in 2025, the high ratio of supply to sales clearly divided the market. Warsaw and the TriCity remain close to equilibrium, with demand keeping pace with supply and prices stable or rising slightly. Meanwhile, Kraków, Poznań, Wrocław, and especially Łódź and Katowice, are under pressure from a growing supply of apartments, including ready-to-let apartments. The theoretical sell-out period for some of these cities is approaching six to seven quarters, while in Łódź and Katowice it exceeds two and almost four years, respectively.
Aleksandra Gawrońska

An additional factor shaping the market in 2025 was the entry into force of the price transparency law. The requirement to present current and historical prices triggered a wave of repricing, with many developers adapting their official price lists to market conditions. BIG DATA experts from RynekPierwotny.pl have again analysed price list changes, this time four months after the law came into force. The fitrst study from October showed that between June and September 2025, price changes affected from 13 pct of the units on sale in Katowice to as many as 44 pct. In Łódź and the Tri-City, including both price reductions and price increases of up to 20 pct.

On balance, taking into account both increases and decreases, apartment sales prices decreased in most cities between June and September. The largest price reductions were recorded in Gdańsk (an average of 3 pct), Łódź (2.6 pct), and Kraków (1.3 pct). In Warsaw and Wrocław, the changes were close to zero. Repricing due to the price transparency law affected both small and large units, apartments in the city centr and on the outskirts, as well as initially expensive and less expensive units.

The data from the beginning of January show how developers' pricing approach changed between September 2025 and January 2026, a period during which the market adapted to price transparency. On the one hand, customers saw a greater diversity of units on sale, while developers experienced a reduced inquiries. As a result, competition intensified and numerous promotional campaigns and discounts emerged, culminating in "Black Week" and the end of the year. Most of these initiatives were not visible in price lists, but they clearly impacted the market.
Jan Dziekoński, Head of Market Insights at RynekPierwotny.pl

The implementation of the price transparency law proved to be a strong, yet one-time, impulse. However, downward pressure on asking prices remains, albeit to varying degrees. Markets that experienced significant repricing in September 2025 – Łódź, Gdańsk, and Kraków – entered a phase of relative stagnation between September 2025 and December 2026. The percentage of units on sale with price changes fell two-fold, and even three-fold in Gdańsk, particularly in the case of price reductions. As a result, asking prices remained stable there, and the average price even increased due to the introduction of new, more expensive projects.

In turn, cities with moderate repricing following the law's implementation – Katowice, Poznań, and Wrocław – continued their downward trend until January 2026. In Poznań and Katowice, average price reductions were around 0.6 pct, while in Wrocław they reached almost 1%. Warsaw remains a stagnant market, with average price changes close to zero, although 20 pct of listings saw a price change – 9 pct with a price reduction and 11 pct with a price increase.

Data on listing prices show a weakening dynamic, but changes are still occurring. Some developers are actively responding to the new situation with pricing, marketing, and sales initiatives, as evidenced by intensive campaigns in the fourth quarter, including discounts. Data on transaction prices, which we expect in February 2026, will provide more insight into the true scale of the "price war" in the sector.
Jan Dziekoński