Poland Warehouses must adapt to an ageing population

By 2035, Poland's population will have shrunk by 1.2 mln people, while the number of people aged 25-44 will shrink by approximately 2 mln, and almost one in four Poles will be over 65. At the same time, online commerce will grow rapidly – ​​over the next 10 years, e-commerce volume will increase by 106 pct, or around PLN 97 bln. According to JLL, this marks the end of growth based on the cheap labour and the beginning of a new model dependent on asset flexibility, automation, and the ability to serve the fastest-growing demand such as e-commerce, e-grocery, and cold chain.

One of the key demographic forecasts predicts that despite the country's shrinking population, the number of households will continue to increase. According to the Central Statistical Office's baseline scenario, Poland will lose 1.2 mln people by 2035, but at the same time, the number of households will increase by around 200,000. This is due to a systematic decline in the average number of people per household. A decline in population will not automatically mean a proportional decline in demand. The growing number of singles, "empty nests" (households vacated by all adult children), and smaller households will continue to support consumption, demand for warehouse space, and the need for efficient logistics.

At the same time, the 25-44 age group is rapidly shrinking – a cohort of particular importance to the labour market, generating strong consumption and strongly impacting demand for office and warehouse space. By 2035, this group will lose approximately 2 mln people, around the entire population of Warsaw. At the same time, the share of older age groups is growing. In just a decade, almost one in four Poles will be over 65, which means a profound shift in the structure of purchases, services, and goods flows.

Demography isn't a risk that suddenly appears. It's a megatrend that can be modelled well in advance. For the commercial real estate market, the next 10 years are the last moment to translate this knowledge into investment, location, and product decisions. After 2035, those processes that are only just gaining traction today will operate with much greater force. This applies to both labour supply and the geography of demand, as well as asset resilience. Demographic changes can be a source of advantage for those who adapt their strategies early enough.
Jan Jakub Zombirt, head of research at JLL

Warehouses are entering an era of adaptation

For the warehouse market, this means a change to the operating model. For years, its development has been based on a combination of a large market, a suitable location, and relatively competitive labour costs. These advantages are not disappearing, but they are no longer sufficient. JLL data shows that between 2019 and 2025, warehouse space in Poland more than doubled, while the working-age population declined by approximately 8 pct in key logistics centres. During this same period, the average unemployment rate in key logistics hubs fell to approximately 3 pct, a level that effectively means there is almost no available workforce. It can also be expected that after the end of the war in Ukraine, the presence of Ukrainians in the labour market will decrease. According to JLL, the warehouse sector will begin to transition from a model based on low labour costs to an environment based on technology and infrastructure, in which automation, proximity to key transportation routes, access to energy, and the quality of the building itself will be increasingly important.

Declining labour availability makes calculating operational risk more important than ever. The threat of downtime is now a real business threat, one that even the lowest rent cannot compensate for. Automation is a natural response to the labour shortage, but it alone won't solve the problem if it's not supported by the right infrastructure. Therefore, buildings that offer long-term stability, not just the lowest per-meter rate, will rise in value. In practice, this primarily means access to adequate power, with a guarantee of future increases, and flexibility that allows for adapting the space to various automation systems. Companies investing millions in technology must be confident that the building won't become a barrier to their growth in a few years or force them to relocate costly.
Tomasz Mika, head of industrial agency, JLL

Automation will continue to rise

The market's response won't be a mass transition to fully unmanned warehouses. The development of modular automation is much more likely – solutions that can be implemented in stages, scaled, transferred, and adapted to current logistics needs. Rising labour costs are changing the economics of automation – higher labour costs mean greater operational savings from implementing automated solutions, significantly shortening the payback period. This shifts automation from a "good to have" category to a "must consider."

However, the level of automation itself won't be the only criterion for advantage. A building's ability to be adapted to various business models will be fundamental. Parameters such as a minimum height of 12 meters, adequate load-bearing capacity and floor flatness, greater connection power, and the ability to reinforce and reconfigure the facility later are becoming increasingly important. In the new market logic, a warehouse shouldn't just be modern – it needs to be future-proof.

E-commerce will rise, job availability will decrease

E-commerce also remains a powerful driver of this transformation. According to JLL's E-commerce Index model, average e-commerce penetration in Poland will increase from 9.1 pct in 2025 to 14.6 pct in 2035. This represents a 5.5 percentage point increase nationwide. The actual volume of online sales will increase by 106 pct, or approximately PLN 97 bln, from around PLN 92 bln in 2025. This growth will have to be accommodated by the market while the overall availability of labour will decline by approximately 3.5 pct. In practice, this translates into a simple equation: more parcels will need to be delivered by fewer workers. This tension cannot be resolved without improving operational efficiency, automation, and redesigning the distribution network.

Last-mile logistics is becoming a challenge for large metropolitan areas

JLL research shows that e-commerce growth will not be evenly distributed. Currently, approximately 30 pct of all online trade is concentrated in the five largest cities, which represent only 13 pct of Poland's population. Warsaw alone accounts for approximately 16.1 pct of the national e-commerce volume by 2035, and the value of online trade in the capital is expected to increase from PLN 14.6 bln in 2025 to PLN 30.4 bln in 2035.

Among the areas with the greatest projected growth in e-commerce are not only the largest cities but also their suburban hinterlands, particularly around Poznań, Piaseczno, and Wołomin. This signals that after a period of dominance by large regional hubs, infrastructure located closer to metropolitan areas and their suburbs will play an increasingly important role.

Smaller Packages, Higher Frequency

Not only is the scale of demand changing, but so is its nature. In the next decade, more mature consumers, who shop differently than younger groups, will become increasingly important. They use e-commerce more frequently, but their shopping baskets are smaller. Seniors' purchases are most often related to health, daily convenience, fresh produce, and ready-made meals. They are also typically more thoughtful, which can reduce returns.

For the warehouse market, this means a shift from handling large, less frequent orders to a model based on higher frequency, smaller shipments, and more precise picking. It also argues for the development of a more distributed logistics network and buildings that can be easily adapted to new product categories and processes.

E-grocery and cold chain create a new vector of growth

The effects of these changes are most visible in two segments that JLL considers key megatrends for logistics through 2035: e-grocery and cold chain (i.e., the storage and distribution of products at controlled temperatures). This is where two independent processes converge: the digitisation of commerce and an aging population. On the one hand, mature consumers are increasingly using online channels for everyday purchases. On the other hand, the growing number of seniors is increasing demand for medicines, medical devices, fresh produce, prepared meals, and deliveries requiring temperature control. As a result, the cold chain is no longer a specialised segment of limited importance, but is becoming one of the most promising market areas. According to JLL, this is where structural demand growth meets a real supply gap. Cold chain offers higher rents, a more defensive profile, and typically longer leases, as relocating operations in a temperature-controlled environment is significantly more difficult and costly than in a standard warehouse.

The investment market will become more selective.

Demographic change is also increasingly influencing risk pricing. According to JLL, the warehouse market is no longer a homogeneous asset class. The gap between buildings that are technically adaptable to new operating models, and those with a value based solely on current demand. Investors are increasingly concerned not only with whether an asset is leased and generating income, but also with a credible competitive scenario in five, seven, or even ten years.

From an investor's point of view, the warehouse market is no longer homogeneous. The difference between assets that can adapt to alternative models beyond typical logistics and those that base their value primarily on current demand is growing. In the context of upcoming demographic changes, location and the highest technical standards will be key in asset selection – floor load-bearing capacity of approximately 6 tons per square meter, clear height of 12m, and adequate access to electricity. This operational flexibility will directly translate into asset liquidity on the investment market. Trends such as e-grocery and cold chain are already creating new investment opportunities, as exemplified by the May sale of the Panattoni Auchan Wilcza Góra building to the French fund Corum
Michał Mania, senior director, capital markets, JLL