Putin and predictability

Russia’s recent aggression and the startling speed of its success have led observers to take a rather more cautious approach to their forecasts. And among those who have been taken by surprise by events are real estate market players and analysts. “It is hard to talk about the possible scenarios for the real estate market in Ukraine at the moment, when the entire country is in danger of descending into a military conflict. We are worried about the safety of our families and our future. In these circumstances business is not our greatest concern” – is how one representative of a Kyiv-based real estate consultancy summarised the situation just one day after Putin’s annexation of Crimea. Amid the general commotion, the noises that economists were making were not much different: “The prospect of Ukraine being divided, which has become more likely after the annexation of Crimea, also shows us that we are not only dealing with a high-risk market, but unfor