About the C-word

Ok, since everyone has probably already checked what the word is by now, and they know it was not the word that first sprang to mind, let’s now go back in time a few months – to last summer. Given what tends to happen outside at our latitude at this time of the year, there are even more reasons to go back in time to that scorching hot summer.

It was a hard-working one, that’s for sure. But the majority of you would certainly have managed to find some time to get some rest – and if you took to the seaside or even the ocean by any chance, it might even be easier for you to recall the beach and swimming in the surf right now. It’s been pleasant, but a day or two or three have already passed and you are somehow more and more eager to look towards the hotel swimming pool instead. You know how it flows: the shade, the drinks, the sweeter water and you can find some peace and quiet at last, without any unnecessary excursions (unless you happen to be lying next to a bothersome neighbour). The sound of the ocean, with wave after a wave in the background, the high and low tides... and you drift yourself away into this sweet state of vacation bliss.

Now let’s come back down to the Earth. Autumn, work, contracts, conferences, banquets, unofficial talks... the whirl goes round faster and faster, but it is all too familiar – this is every-day life. This year, however, the routine seems to be slightly different. And particularly when it comes to unofficial talks. Nobody has said the C-word word aloud yet. They sometimes find themselves in the vicinity of it, but nobody wants to be the first to openly say it. Fortunately enough, in the case of the C-word it is all about not being the last one to say it. At the same time, New York investment bankers do not have an issue with using this word and they have already warned us about the third wave of it. But we know better about what things are like with them, don't we? If they warn us against something, recommending not buying certain assets or others, they must see some business in it themselves...

Requests to comment on the … under one’s own name for an article fall on the barren ground. And the interviewer even feels as if they have committed a serious faux pas. Things are good, aren’t they? Tenants are renting like crazy, more and more buildings are being built and investors actually lack the products to buy, if anything, but definitely not the funds to do so. And here comes that whole list of numbers, statistics and the bragging match about the millions, billions or even trillions that are there and cannot find a way out. They certainly will find it at some point, but then the counting will start again – in a year or two, or three...

The majority of market players still vividly remember 2008 and what happened afterwards. Conclusions have been drawn – perhaps some have already forgotten what these conclusions were, but they are not clearly not among the mainstream. The issue is that while nothing happens twice, in this case it has to happen one more time. And there is probably nothing wrong with wondering what it’s going to look like. Where will it come from? How long could it last? It doesn’t matter what car you have, driving blindly always ends up in badly at the first turn.

So let’s go back to your blissful afternoon nap under that palm tree, next to the hotel swimming pool near the beach. You should have reached the REM phase, which simply means that you are now starting to dream. The sound of the waves might calm and soothe you, but with time you hear less and less of this – the tide has gone out. And not everyone in the sea has become aware of the turn of events at the right time. Now you can clearly see who has been swimming without trunks. You are no longer napping in a comfortable deckchair under a palm tree next to the swimming pool and you have to rely instead on the mercy of the ocean. And it’s too late, because now you are staring into the latest, unforeseen, crisis.