PL

Poland Housing market tightens

Residential
The residential market’s third-quarter performance was markedly weaker than the first six months of 2021, both in terms of sales and new supply, according to the Residential Market in Poland - Q3 2021 report by JLL.

Developers operating in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the TriCity, Poznań and Łódź put 13,800 units on sale, 13 pct fewer than in the previous quarter. Although sales of 15,000 units were 23 pct lower q-o-q, they were still higher than new units begun, which has now been true for three successive quarters. The new units available on the market in these cities dropped to 36,600, 26 pct lower than a year ago. Poland’s inflation rate continues to rise and is encouraging new buyers to purchase now. While it is clear that the limited supply and rising prices are increasingly reducing sales, developers still managed to sell 54,000 units over the first three quarters of the year, which is more than 1,000 more units than were sold throughout 2020.

Buyers are looking for security for their savings through property purchases, but also for improved housing for fear that more pandemic restrictions will be imposed. On the other hand, disruptions to supply chains have increased the cost of building materials, and public administrations inefficiencies have limited supply. In such a situation, it is extremely difficult for developers to set sales goals and plan their budgets and their attempts to mitigate these risks result in projects being launched at higher and higher prices,
Aleksandra Gawrońska, head of residential research at JLL.

Unit prices in newly launched projects in Wrocław rose the fastest, up by 23 pct q-o-q and average prices are now more than PLN 10,000 per sqm representing a 16 pct rise y-o-y. The highest rise over the year was recorded in Łódź at 18 pct while the TriCity saw the smallest rise at just 9 pct. The number of units on sale in all six cities has decreased with Wrocław seeing the largest fall of 42 pct with only 5,400 new apartments on sale. A large 34 pct drop can also be seen in Warsaw. Given the pace of sales over the last twelve months, all the new apartments currently on sale could well sell out in around five months if new developments were not to come onto the market.

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