Poland Stable investment over H1

The second quarter of the year saw renewed investor momentum, although completed transactions remained limited in scale. Smaller-ticket deals dominated, reflecting the impact of geopolitical instability and a challenging economic environment.

The commercial real estate market in Poland showed signs of stabilisation against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty. Transaction volume came to EUR 1.7 billion since the beginning of the year, accounting for around 45 pct of the five-year annual average.
Mateusz Skubiszewski, head of capital markets, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland

Industrial and logistics lead the way

Analysis of the year-to-date investment volume reveals that the industrial and logistics sector remained in the lead, attracting EUR 694 mln in investment, up by 136 pct year-on-year. The largest transaction in this segment was the sale and leaseback of the Eko Okna portfolio (264,000 sqm) by Realty Income for EUR 253 mln. Other notable deals included the acquisition of AFI Home Metro Szwedzka (formerly known as Bohema) in Warsaw. The 20,600 sqm complex was acquired by AFI Europe for EUR 76.2 mln. Additionally, LPP’s distribution centre spanning 103,000 sqm in Bydgoszcz was sold to Reico IS EAM for EUR 75.8 mln.

The office investment volume totalled EUR 411 million year-to-date, while the retail sector recorded EUR 322 mln– down 49 pct and 36 pct respectively on the same time last year. That said, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland anticipates a retail revival in the second half of 2025, driven by planned large-scale transactions, which are likely to boost annual investment volumes.

Large transactions remain scarce

Trophy core assets remain out of reach for many cross-border investors due to persistently high financing costs and a mismatch in pricing expectations between sellers and buyers in this segment. Some market players have adopted a wait-and-see approach, shifting their focus to smaller-scale assets with more predictable risk profiles. The first half of the year saw only one major transaction exceeding EUR 250 million.

The second half of the year is expected to bring a gradual market recovery, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks. This is likely to lead to yield compression and increased attractiveness of real estate as an asset class.
Mateusz Skubiszewski

Small-ticket transactions continue to ride high

Analysis of year-to-date investment volumes shows that activity was the strongest in the EUR 40–100 mln segment, totalling EUR 769 mln up by 137 pct year-on-year. Transactions up to EUR 20 mln reached EUR 293 mln, down 16 pct on the same period last year. The largest deals, exceeding EUR 100 mln, totalled EUR 254 mln, marking a 65 pct year-on-year decrease. This clearly reflects investor preference for lower-risk, more predictable assets.

Domestic capital on the rise

European capital accounted for the largest share of investment volume since the beginning of the year, at 59 pct, followed by US investment funds with 23 pct. Investors from the Middle East contributed 12 pct, while African-based capital made up 2 pct of the total.

Domestic investors have significantly increased their market share since the beginning of the year. Polish investors are playing an increasingly important role in overall investment activity. This is a testament to growing confidence in the local market and a rising appetite for deploying capital into Poland’s commercial real estate sector.

Yields remain stable

During the first half of 2025, prime asset yields in Poland remained unchanged at 6.25 pct for offices and warehouses, 6.5 pct for shopping centres and 5.25 pct for logistics facilities serving e-commerce.

The absence of yield decompression points to expectations that financing costs will decline further. Interest rates are still too high to attract global capital, and the market is currently dominated by opportunistic investors from the CEE region. High capital costs continue to weigh heavily on development activity, which will likely lead to reduced availability of new, fully leased assets. The market could, however, benefit from funds disbursed under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan which remain a significant driver of economic growth.
Karolina Wojciechowska, director of capital markets, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland