PL

Poland Investing in times of uncertainty

Investment & finance
The investment volume of 2022 was shaped by five large deals, which accounted for 40 pct of the total result. Market liquidity fell by 27 pct, from a record 166 transactions in 2021 to 122 completed in 2022, according to experts at Avison Young.

By the end of September 2022, the total volume of investments exceeded the result of the same period in 2021 by more than 20 pct, with Q4 bringing transactions worth EUR 1.5 bln and 2022 closing with a final result of more than EUR 5.8 bln.

Saying goodbye to 2022 means welcoming a year of uncertainty for the fourth time in a row. Two pandemic years, war in Ukraine, historically high inflation and the upcoming spectre of recession have forced the Polish investment market to cope with tough times. Notwithstanding, 2022 results comparable to 2021 volumes, strongly confirm the resilience and solid foundations of the Polish investment market.
Paulina Brzeszkiewicz-Kuczyńska, Research and Data Manager at Avison Young

After the dominance of the warehouse sector in terms of volume in 2020 and 2021, the office sector returned to the leading position in 2022, which in turn was characterised by comparable transaction volumes in Warsaw and regional cities. In the retail sector, convenience facilities dominated the transaction structure. The best shopping centres in regional cities also returned to the game. In the PRS sector, seven transactions were completed, mainly in Warsaw.

Faced with uncertain market conditions, many investors in the office sector turned to stable assets. Almost 90 pct of the EUR 2.1 bln invested in the sector in 2022 went into core or core+ properties, which fit into a low-risk strategy. Nevertheless the second half of 2022 saw a surge in opportunistic transactions, particularly in Warsaw.

After Warsaw's overwhelming dominance in terms of volume in recent years, regional markets have flourished in 2022. Out of the 28 office transactions recorded in 2022, 19 involved regional markets, but it was in the capital that the two most impressive acquisitions took place. The Warsaw Hub and Generation Park Y transactions accounted for 41 pct of the total investment volume in the office sector and 83 pct of the total investment volume in the capital.

Rental increases resulting from, among other things, indexation of rates and rising operating costs are factors that will force both tenants and landlords to optimise costs in 2023.

We expect that in the most liquid markets, including Warsaw, the best projects and well-established locations will continue to be of interest to investors, although yields may be decompressed.
Marcin Purgal, Senior Director, Investment at Avison Young

The warehouse and logistics sector, the undisputed leader of 2021, responsible for more than 50 pct of the total investment volume, is currently facing a significant investment slowdown. Price expectations for warehouse products are currently the hottest topic under discussion for many. Buyers have not forgotten about this sector, their offers, however, are often lower than expected by landlords, who are trying to maintain the value of properties at existing levels.

In 2022, the total investment volume in the warehouse sector was EUR 2 bln, down more than 30 pct from the previous record year. As a result, the investment volume of the office sector was slightly higher, with the warehouse segment accounting for the total of 34 pct.

CBRE IM's acquisition of the Danica warehouse portfolio from Hillwood was the second largest transaction recorded in 2022, accounting for 26 pct of total warehouse sector volume. It was also the third largest transaction by volume in the warehouse sector in Poland since the start of the market. The warehouse sector, like office and retail, is characterised by significant transaction growth outside the core markets.

A trend that can be noticed and will become stronger in 2023 and in the following years, is the growing demand for brownfield land in the largest agglomerations, due to continuous development of last mile logistics and the e-commerce market. It should be noted that in many cases investments in attractive brownfield projects may turn out to be a better solution than the purchase of the undeveloped but properly serviced plots.
Bartłomiej Krzyżak, Senior Director, Investment at Avison Young

According to Avison Young's forecasts, shopping centres are back in the game in 2022. After the market collapse in 2020, 12 large-scale shopping centres, very well located in major cities in Poland, were the subject of transactions in 2021. All were bought at attractive prices by opportunistic investors or for redevelopment. As highlighted by Avison Young's experts, there were six transactions of facilities planned for redevelopment in 2022, but there were also four transactions of regular, operating shopping centres located in regional markets.

The largest transaction in the retail sector was the acquisition of Forum Gdańsk by Nepi Rockcastle for EUR 250 mln, which was the first such impressive deal for a single shopping centre since 2018. The investor also added the Atrium Copernicus shopping centre in Toruń to its portfolio. Two Atrium malls in Płock were also among the shopping centres sold.

As Avison Young's experts point out, the beginning and end of 2022 were the most abundant in terms of transaction volume in the retail sector. Q2 and Q3, on the other hand, ranked third and second lowest respectively since 2016. Q1 was marked by two joint venture investments created by EPP. Q4, on the other hand, was determined by anticipated come back of the regular shopping centres’ acquisitions.

Retail parks and convenience facilities were invariably popular with investors. In 2022, 43 transactions were recorded in the Polish retail investment market, 65 pct of which were for retail parks and convenience facilities. In 2022, three new players - Leoff, Lords LB and BIG Shopping Centers - entered the Polish market and were attracted by this product.

The widespread uncertainty observed in the markets means that investors often focus their attention on projects centred around the basic needs, namely residential real estate, and convenience retail projects. These two types of assets are on the radar of a growing number of investors, as they are considered the safest. Looking on the operations undertaken on the investment market from the perspective of the end of 2022, it seems that these segments will be even more popular in 2023, provided that the costs and strategies of financing investment projects adopted by banks do not prevent it.
Michał Ćwikliński, Principal, Managing Director at Avison Young

The year 2022 closed in the PRS sector with seven transactions with a total value of EUR 150 mln, the highest result ever recorded in Poland. Five projects were completed in Warsaw. The purchase of 60 units at Zlota 44 and of the Pereca 11 building in Warsaw, as well as Trio in Kraków, stood out for the highest volume. At the same time, there are a number of PRS projects in the pipeline that are subject to forward funding agreements, confirming the dynamics of the market.

According to Avison Young analysts, the market is in a situation where investors expect price reductions and this applies, with some exceptions, to all segments of the property market. Buyers are expecting "tomorrow's price" today, while owners want to maintain yesterday's values. The latter talk of rising costs and increasing risks, while the former are in no hurry at all.

Avison Young experts point out that in Poland, owners are not forced to sell their property for financial reasons. In Western Europe, a transaction can be closed within a month and cash can be obtained relatively quickly to pay off urgent debts. In Poland, transactions take much longer to close, so there are no typical 'bargains' on the market.

According to Avison Young, the first half of 2023 will continue to be characterised by a slowdown in the investment market as some buyers wait for discounts. However, the number of transactions should increase in the second half of this year. The level of interest rates affecting financing should stabilise, which will be reflected in the stabilisation of prices.

As assessed by the experts from Avison Young, buyers are cautious, so the safest bet is to buy flats and retail parks with convenience offer that meets the basic needs. But there are also purchasers willing to buy warehouses, especially those well-located and secured by good leases, as well as office buildings in prominent locations. Lands for retail parks or good residential properties sold to institutional entities will remain interesting to investors.

Latest news

Investment & finance

Germany Panattoni Park Voerde changes hands

schedule 19 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

Panattoni has completed a sales transaction in Germany. Clarion Partners Europe has acquired a prime logistics hub for EUR 75 mln near Duisburg.

Material partner

Poland Excellent Fern at Off Piotrkowska

schedule 04 April 2024
Eurobuild CEE

Intensive commercialization of the multifunctional Fern building under construction at Off Piotrkowska Center has begun. A modern building, the construction of which will start at the turn of 2024/2025, offers 4,700 sqm of service space and 2,700 sqm of office space.

ESG

Poland Outstanding Kreo

schedule 18 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

Kreo, Ghelamco's Kraków office project, has achieved BREEAM certification at the Outstanding level. The building also has a WELL and Green Building Standard pre-certificate, and is also in the process of Smart Score, Wired Score and "Barrier-free building" certification.

Investment & finance

Romania Flats, offices and hotels on the agenda

schedule 18 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

One United Properties has unveiled its strategy for the coming years. It plans to triple its residential offer by 2030, expand its commercial sector and build hotels in Bucharest in partnership with global brands.

Investment & finance

Poland EUR 1.5 bln on acquisitions in Poland

schedule 18 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

Baltisse and Straco Real Estate acquire majority stake in Speedwell, expanding reach into Romania and entering Polish market. Speedwell wants to spend at least EUR 1.5 bln on acquisitions in Poland in the coming years. 

Land acquisitions

Germany More land for Garbe

schedule 18 April 2024
Opr./edited by JC

Garbe Industrial Real Estate has secured another plot of land in Rüdenhausen, Germany. The Hamburg-based project developer is planning a logistics centre with a total area of around 19,200 sqm on the site.

Warehouse & industrial

Poland The warehouse giant in Targówek has woken up

schedule 17 April 2024
Eurobuild CEE

The JV of Partners Group and Peakside Capital Advisors has completed the construction of the first warehouse facility in City Point Targówek. The 7,000 sqm building fully leased to DPD Polska is the part of a complex which will provide nearly 100,000 sqm space in the biggest park of last-mile logistics in the Warsaw boundaries.

Retail & leisure

Poland Good start for Polish retail

schedule 17 April 2024
Opr./edited by JC

Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market. The opening of 2024 is encouraging and new retail space supply in the coming months is likely to match or even surpass last year’s total.

Residential

Germany Berlin residential market report 2024

schedule 17 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

According to the Berlin 2024 Residential Market Report by real estate financier Berlin Hyp and real estate service provider CBRE, purchase prices have fallen, while pressure on the rental housing market continues to increase. As a result, rental prices are continuing to rise sharply.

Hotels

Germany IHG doubles in Germany

schedule 17 April 2024
Opr./edited by JC

IHG Hotels & Resorts and Novum Hospitality announced a long-term agreement that will double IHG’s presence in Germany to more than 200 hotels in almost 100 cities through Holiday Inn – the niu brand collaboration and European debuts for IHG’s Garner and Candlewood Suites.

Warehouse & industrial

Poland Hillwood makes its debut near Poznań

schedule 17 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

Hillwood Polska has started its first investment in the Poznań market. As part of the Hillwood Poznań - Czempiń project, the company is building a warehouse complex of nearly 130,000 sqm.

Retail & leisure

Czech Republic Prague’s Černý Most shopping mall will grow

schedule 16 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

Centrum Černý Most, a shopping centre in the Prague region, is set to undergo a significant expansion of 9,100 sqm that will add over 30 new shops and restaurants, as well as additional screens to the centre’s multiplex cinema.

Office & mixed-use development

Poland The Bridge has gained its height

schedule 16 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

The structure of The Bridge skyscraper in Warsaw's Wola district has reached its final height, i.e. 174 m. The builders have just completed the last technical floor. Installation and finishing works inside the facility and the assembly of the facade are in progress.

Retail & leisure

Poland Glinianka changes hands

schedule 16 April 2024
Opr./edited by JC

Redkom Development sold 100 pct of shares in the company holding the Glinianka complex. The retail park, located near Warsaw, has been bought by CEE-Big Europe.

Warehouse & industrial

Poland The logistics park in Sulechów is ready

schedule 16 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

Panattoni has finished the last stage of Panattoni Park Sulechów III. The centre has been developed for BestSecret, a European members-only online destination for premium and luxury off-price fashion. The building has a total area of 136,000 sqm, which makes it one of the largest logistics centres in the region.

Warehouse & industrial

Germany CTP builds for Quanta

schedule 16 April 2024
Opr./edited by JC

CTP has signed a deal with Quanta Computer, a Taiwanese company that manufactures computers and electronic hardware, for a 22,500 sqm production facility at CTPark Jülich in northwest Germany.

Warehouse & industrial

Poland Fresenius stays with Prologis

schedule 16 April 2024
Opr./edited by JC

Medical company Fresenius Medical Care has renegotiated its lease of 3,900 sqm of warehouse space and 120 sqm of office space in Prologis Park Poznań.

Events

Poland Piotr Kroenke (1950-2024)

schedule 15 April 2024
Eurobuild CEE

We regret to inform you that Piotr Kroenke, long-time general director of GTC and co-creator of many of the company's successes, has passed away.

ESG

Poland BIK Park Sosnowiec II is now BREEAM certified

schedule 15 April 2024
Opr./edited by ANZ

BIK Park Sosnowiec II has successfully passed the BREEAM certification at the Very Good level. Last year, BIK Park Wrocław I and II - two other properties from the portfolio of Biuro Inwestycji Kapitałowych - went through the same assessment process.

Investment & finance

Romania Retail is strong in Romania

schedule 15 April 2024
Opr./edited by JC

According to the special research report Romania Retail Destinations 2024, released by CBRE Romania, by the end of 2024 the stock of modern retail spaces in the country will overpass 4.5 mln sqm. It will set a new record for Romania.

Latest in Investment & finance

schedule 19 April 2024

Panattoni Park Voerde changes hands

Panattoni has completed a sales transaction in Germany. Clarion Partners Europe has acquired a prime logistics hub for EUR 75 mln near Duisburg.

schedule 18 April 2024

Flats, offices and hotels on the agenda

One United Properties has unveiled its strategy for the coming years. It plans to triple its residential offer by 2030, expand its commercial sector and build hotels in Bucharest in partnership with global brands.

schedule 18 April 2024

EUR 1.5 bln on acquisitions in Poland

Baltisse and Straco Real Estate acquire majority stake in Speedwell, expanding reach into Romania and entering Polish market. Speedwell wants to spend at least EUR 1.5 bln on acquisitions in Poland in the coming years. 

schedule 15 April 2024

Retail is strong in Romania

According to the special research report Romania Retail Destinations 2024, released by CBRE Romania, by the end of 2024 the stock of modern retail spaces in the country will overpass 4.5 mln sqm. It will set a new record for Romania.

schedule 10 April 2024

Big splash in Silesia

Mitiska REIM has sold a 6.7ha land plot to Momentum Leisure to develop a theme and water park which will further reinforce the offering of the Europa Centralna retail center, located in Gliwice.

schedule 08 April 2024

Additional loan for Hillwood

Hillwood has increased its loan with Millennium Bank to EUR 29 mln for the construction of phase II of the Park Hillwood Zgierz I project, located in Central Poland, 2.5 km from the A2 motorway entrance and 15.5 km from the A1 motorway junction.

schedule 04 April 2024

Refinancing secured for Galeria Młociny

EPP and Echo Investment have successfully secured a loan worth EUR 145.2 mln for the new financing of the Galeria Młociny shopping centre in Warsaw.

schedule 04 April 2024

Loan for Dobrzykowice

Hillwood Polska has signed a loan agreement with mBank worth more than EUR 28.4 mln for the construction of a warehouse in Dobrzykowice near Wrocław. The building will be part of the Hillwood Wrocław East project being developed together with LCube.

schedule 04 April 2024

Grójecka 5 sold and renamed

Dubai-headquartered investment platform Solida Capital has acquired the G5 office building at ul. Grójecka 5 in central Warsaw from Cromwell European REIT for EUR 15.86 mln. The property is to undergo a refurbishment following the change of ownership and will be rebranded as G5 Prime Offices.

schedule 03 April 2024

Panattoni gets millions

Panattoni has gotten financing to develop a factory for global lighting expert Trilux, a company that specialises in environmentally-friendly B2B solutions. The loan of EUR 18,3 mln was granted by Alior Bank.

schedule 03 April 2024

1AM buys half of Lipowy Office Park for students

Hungarian real estate group Futureal Investment Partners has sold for an undisclosed sum two buildings of Lipowy Office Park in Warsaw to the 1AM CEE Student Housing Fund, which is managed by Vilnius-based 1 Asset Management.

schedule 03 April 2024

WDP swoops for Expo Market Doraly

ARA Europe and the Romanian investor Gheorghe Iaciu have sold the Expo Market Doraly shopping centre in Afumați on Bucharest’s north-eastern outskirts to Belgian warehousing group WDP for an undisclosed sum.

schedule 03 April 2024

Faedra22 in German hands

Hungarian developer Faedra Group has sold its 16,600 sqm Faedra22 warehouse development in southern Budapest to a German investor for an undisclosed sum.

schedule 02 April 2024

MLP remains optimistic

MLP Group has unveiled the key goals of its growth strategy for 2024–2028. The 2024 plans have been updated in response to shifts in the macro environment and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

schedule 20 March 2024

Another quarter of negative performance

Inrev’s Quarterly Fund Index confirms an ongoing correction in the European real estate market. The Q4 2023 performance was yet again negative, a total return of -1.70 pct, and a sharp decline from -0.56 pct reported in Q3 2023.

schedule 18 March 2024

Real estate at a pivot point

Despite the monetary headwinds and continued economic uncertainty around the world, there is a strong belief that the global real estate industry is at a "pivot point", with improving prospects ahead for renewed investment activity, according to the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Global Outlook 2024 from PwC and the Urban Land Institute. 

schedule 12 March 2024

NEPI Rockcastle boosts the pipeline

NEPI Rockcastle has expanded its development and refurbishment pipeline in 2024 to just over EUR 650 mln across its Central and Eastern European markets, the biggest retail investment programme in the region.

schedule 11 March 2024

Rock Park Przeworsk changes owner

The Rock Park Przeworsk retail park, opened at the beginning of February, gained a new owner after a month of operation. The transaction took place between RockCapital. and ME Invest, a company owned by TERG S.A., owner of the Media Expert chain. 

schedule 07 March 2024

MLP Group announces EUR 41 mln bond issue

MLP Group has successfully placed EUR 41 mln worth of bonds, comprising an entire issue, with 35 investors in a public offering intended for qualified buyers. The transaction was arranged and conducted by mBank.

schedule 05 March 2024

Technopolis Ozas sold in Vilnius

Investment firm Lords LB Asset Management has completed the purchase of the Technopolis Ozas office campus in Vilnius with a total area of over 100,000 sqm. The seller was Technopolis Lietuva.

Edition 4 (287) April 2024

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