Poland Avison Young sums up first five months

In April, the largest sale & leaseback deal ever completed - not only in Poland but across the entire Central and Eastern European region - was finalized. Polish window manufacturer Eko-Okna sold 2 warehouses, comprising approximately 264,000 sqm and valued at ca. PLN 1 bln, while simultaneously leasing it back. The buyer was US-based REIT, Realty Income Corporation.

Thanks to this landmark deal, the total investment volume for the first 4 months of the year reached approximately EUR 1.1 billion. This figure surpassed the volume recorded during the same period in 2024, indicating a significant uptick in market activity. Moreover, it marked the long-anticipated return of large-scale logistics transactions - a development the sector had been eagerly awaiting.

May, however, brought a slight slowdown in momentum, with only three transactions recorded - all in the office sector, all located in Warsaw - with a total volume of around EUR 70 million. What does this signal for the market?

The number of transactions in May is not very impressive, but it does not indicate a slowdown. Looking solely at our pipeline of projects for sale, we remain optimistic about market activity. We still expect the volume by the end of 2025 to exceed EUR 5 billion. Of course, everything will depend on transactions reaching high values - particularly in the logistics and retail sectors - which we are all awaiting. The historically limited activity of institutional investors over recent years was caused by many factors, including the decline in property values, the high cost of capital, and more challenging access to external financing. Investors continue to approach asset selection quite selectively, a trend observed not only in Poland but globally. Currently, in Poland, the main players are smaller investors, private capital, and value-add funds, as property prices have dropped, making opportunities more accessible.
Marcin Purgal, senior director, Investment at Avison Young

Polish capital grows stronger

Polish capital is also hunting for price opportunities and is becoming increasingly visible in the structure of transactions on the commercial real estate market - and not just residential. 2 out of 3 acquisitions completed in May 2025 belonged to Polish investors. Avison Young advised on one of these deals - the sale of the Warsaw office building Lighthouse – co-representing the seller, Octava Property Trust.

Between 2018 and 2022, the average share of Polish capital in the total market volume was about 2%. Since 2023, there has been a sharp increase, surpassing 7% and 10% in the following two years, respectively. Throughout 2024, Polish capital, with 40 completed transactions, accounted for 31% in terms of transaction count and 10% in transaction volume; the average transaction value was EUR 12 million.

In the first quarter of this year, Polish investors completed 12 transactions, representing 34% of the number of deals and 17% of the volume; the average transaction value was EUR 10 mln.

Polish investors, due to their capital - often cash-based - focus mainly on smaller and less expensive assets. In the retail sector, their interest includes both single, standalone grocery stores and retail parks, typically priced between EUR 5-15 million, but sometimes also approaching around EUR 30 million for newer and larger properties. Older office buildings with stable cash flow and established locations are also of interest to Polish investors.
Marcin Purgal.

Industrial sector

The Polish industrial sector was the leader in terms of transaction volume in Q1 2025 (EUR 202 million, accounting for 29% of the overall volume), excluding the aforementioned Eko-Okna transaction completed in April. Apart from that deal, there were no other sales in this sector during April or May. Nevertheless, with the expected acceleration in the investment market, we anticipate an increasing number of portfolio transactions as well as mergers and acquisitions. One significant deal has already been completed - GLP sold its warehouse assets to Ares Management (including a large portfolio in Poland) as part of a global M&A transaction.

Retail sector

After several large “prime” shopping center sales in 2024, early 2025 has been dominated by “convenience” assets. This asset class, consistently viewed as a safe investment option, maintains its appeal among investors. We expect further transactions involving retail parks and convenience-type properties, but attention should also be paid to shopping malls with dominant positions in cities and solid, stable fundamentals. This asset class is currently being widely analyzed by investors, and more deals are expected to close shortly.

Office sector

The office investment market in Poland continues to attract strong investor interest, although buyers remain very selective. “Value-add” and “core+” strategies are gaining popularity in specific locations, especially where sellers’ and buyers’ expectations have converged. Core capital remains slightly active, as investors pursuing such strategies continue to avoid risks associated with economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Meanwhile, “value-add” and opportunistic investors demonstrate greater - albeit cautious - activity, seeking opportunities without overpaying for assets.

A notable recent trend in the office market is the purchase of entire buildings intended for own operations or for own operations and partly for leasing. Recent transactions of this kind involved companies such as Ryanair, Enter Air, the General Prosecutor’s Office, and the Polish Football Association (PZPN), which acquired office buildings (both vacant and partially leased) to house their offices after renovation and adaptation works. From the end-user’s perspective, buying and refurbishing can be more attractive than leasing or constructing a new seat from scratch.
Marcin Purgal