Poland Ageing population drives senior living investment

In 2025, investment volume in the sector reached EUR 16.1 bln, of which a record EUR 11.8 bln was allocated to the UK. Furthermore, investor activity, even excluding the UK market, almost doubled compared to 2024, driven primarily by the rebound in the Nordic countries. Even excluding both the UK and the Nordic countries, activity increased by around 20 pct, signalling a gradual reopening of the market. Against this backdrop, Poland and the rest of CEE have significant room for improvement. In Poland, there are fewer than 10 beds in care-ready facilities for every 100 people over 80.

Strong Fundamentals and Improved Operational Situation

The year 2025 brought a clear stabilisation in the operational situation. Occupancy rates increased in most countries, and operators reported more predictable margins. At the same time, market consolidation continued. According to a Cushman & Wakefield report, private operators currently account for approximately 40 pct of available nursing home beds across Europe. From an investment perspective, the sector's fundamentals remain strong, and prime yields for prime assets have generally stabilised in 2025. In mature markets, they remained around 5-5.1 pct – for example, in France and Finland at 5 pct, and in Germany at 5.1 pct. In Southern Europe, particularly in Italy and Portugal, they remained higher at around 5.75 pct, although the report indicates the first signs of recovery. In Sweden and the Netherlands, the first signs of yield compression were already visible – in 2025, yields were around 4.1 pct and 4.75 pct, respectively.

After several years of uncertainty, the sector is returning to a path of stabilisation, both operationally and investment-wise. We are seeing improved fundamentals, but also a clear shift in investor attitudes – today, asset quality, operator strength, and long-term cash flow sustainability are key.
Karolina Furmańska, associate, living sector, Cushman & Wakefield

Investment Market: Capital Return and US Dominance

After three years of declining investment volumes in continental Europe, activity has begun to recover, reaching a total of EUR 16.1 bln. In the British market, which accounted for almost 75 pct of total European volumes, US capital dominated, accounting for nearly 90 pct of transaction activity.

This capital return is also evident in the growing activity of international investors and improving financing conditions. At the same time, the market is becoming increasingly selective. Investors are focusing on assets that meet high operational and environmental standards, while assets that do not meet profitability or ESG criteria are being sidelined. We are seeing a return to liquidity, but in a more demanding environment, as investment criteria are now much more stringent than before the slowdown.
Katarzyna Lipka, head of strategic consulting and ESG advisory at Cushman & Wakefield

Structural demand driven by demographics

The foundation of growth remains the inevitable demographic trends. As of January 2025, the European Union had 450.4 mln people, of whom the share of the population aged 65 and over increased from 16.4 pct to 21.6 pct across all member states.

The number of people aged 80 and over is growing even more rapidly, with its share of the population increasing from 3.8 pct to 6.1 pct. The demographic dependency ratio, which compares the number of elderly people to the working-age population, is also rising. It is expected to rise from 34.4 pct in early 2025 to a staggering 50.4 pct in 2050, meaning there will be fewer than two working adults for every elderly person.
Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, head of research at Cushman & Wakefield

Poland and CEE: A Structural Supply Gap and the Growing Role of the Private Market

Compared to Europe, Poland and the broader Central and Eastern European region remain markets with a significant shortage of long-term care infrastructure. The equipment rate, measured as the number of beds to the population over 80, is only 9.5 pct in Poland, one of the lowest results, alongside Italy (9 pct) and the Czech Republic (11.9 pct). According to data from the Central Statistical Office, there are currently approximately 1.6 mln people aged 80 and over living in Poland, and their number is growing rapidly– it will exceed 3 mln by 2040. This indicates a further increase in structural demand for professional long-term care and a deepening need for the development of modern senior infrastructure.

Poland has a different market structure, where the private sector manages only approximately 22 pct of beds, while in countries such as the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Italy, private operators control between 75 pct and 85 pct of the market. The sector in our country is highly fragmented, with only two main institutional operators present in the market. The lowest infrastructure availability is noted in the Wielkopolska and Lublin voivodeships, indicating significant potential for new investments.
Karolina Furmańska

The specifics of the Polish market stem primarily from systemic and historical conditions, including the care financing model and the role of traditional family structures in senior care. However, growing demand for institutionalised forms of care can be expected, which will support the development of the private sector and the inflow of foreign capital, which began to flow back to Poland from France, the United Kingdom, and the United States in 2025.

Poland and the CEE region are currently at an earlier stage of market development than Western Europe, which, on the one hand, means greater systemic challenges, but on the other, significantly greater growth potential. The scale of the shortage of modern infrastructure, coupled with a rapidly ageing population, will lead to a gradual professionalisation of the market and the growing importance of private operators in the coming years. We are already seeing the first signs of this process – growing investor interest, increased transaction activity, and the gradual development of operator platforms. In the long term, Poland could become one of the key growth markets in Europe in this segment.
Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz

ESG as a Key Development Direction

Environmental considerations are also playing an increasingly important role in shaping the development scenarios for the nursing home market, with ESG criteria influencing investment strategies and transaction decisions. According to the Deepka index, the European nursing home sector recorded an average reduction in energy consumption of 7.48 pct in 2023, making it one of the leaders in improving real estate efficiency. However, average primary energy consumption is 292 kWhPE/sqm, which is still significantly above the 177 kWhPE/sqm threshold required for top-tier assets under the EU taxonomy. The markets facing the greatest challenges are in Italy (353 kWhPE/sqm) and France (340 kWhPE/sqm), while the lowest average consumption was recorded in Germany (225 kWhPE/sqm).

In practice, the growing importance of sustainability in investment decisions translates into a growing importance of modernising existing facilities and greater asset selection during portfolio development. However, operators will face increased operating costs and growing regulatory pressure, with the ability to improve cost efficiency being crucial to their market position. At the same time, strong demographic demand and a structural shortage of modern, future-proof infrastructure will continue to underpin the sector's long-term attractiveness to institutional investors. In Poland, due to the point in the market development we are at, we have the opportunity to build a modern base of care homes for seniors, adapted to ESG requirements.
Katarzyna Lipka