Poland Optimistic outlook for logistics

According to the survey, almost six out of ten industry representatives rate the current business conditions as better or the same as a year ago, while 44 pct indicated this in 2023. Among other things, the importance of employee skills in Poland compared to the EU has increased, with 62 pct of respondents rating them as better than average. A year ago, the figure was 42 pct. In turn, the positive assessment of the speed of supply chain operations rose to 46 pct.

The Confidence Index value broke the 50-point barrier for the first time since the 2018/2019 edition. A number above 50 indicates an improvement in sentiment and below 50 a decline.

After the difficult economic conditions of recent years, the pressure seems to be easing in 2024. The level of inflation in Poland is significantly lower than in the last two years, while the GDP results for Q1 2024 and its forecast for the rest of the year are positive. Logistics providers in particular are cautiously optimistic about the coming year, despite a number of market challenges, including rising labour costs and unfavourable exchange rate movements that are not conducive to competitiveness. Despite this, there are still opportunities for growth. It is fostered by the revival of demand and infrastructure development, as well as Poland's important role in cross-border trade.
Michał Śniadała, head of warehouse and industrial space at CBRE

Last year, 56 pct of respondents considered the current business situation to be more difficult. This year, according to 56 pct of respondents, conditions are better or the same, while last year, such answers were selected by 44 pct. Additionally, for 4 pct of respondents, business conditions are now much more favourable, although in the previous survey, no one selected such an option.

According to the responses of industry representatives, the most positive influence on company performance in Poland at present is transport capacity, as indicated by 39 pct, followed by the size of warehouse space, storage space, as declared by a third of the respondents. At the end of Q1 2024, Poland offered over 32.1 mln sqm. Negative factors, on the other hand, were dominated by increases in fuel and energy prices, indicated by two-thirds of respondents, and higher labour costs, as admitted by six out of ten respondents.

After the very successful years of 2021 and 2022 in the Polish warehouse market, 2023 was a time of greater challenges due to the difficult and not entirely predictable macroeconomic situation. However, we already saw an improvement in sentiment in the last months of last year, which is also continuing in the first quarters of this year. This is also confirmed by the survey participants in their responses. As many as 56 pct of companies see increased demand for logistics space in 2024, but are counting on some challenges in acquiring it. 40 pct plan to maintain the space they occupy and only 4 pct are considering reducing it. The increase in demand for warehouse space is mainly due to the rapid growth of e-commerce and the need for companies to increase their inventory in the face of volatile supply chains.
Bartłomiej Hofman, managing director of P3 Logistic Parks in Poland

Representatives of the sector participating in the Confidence Index 2024 survey were also asked to compare business conditions in Poland with other EU countries. Respondents gave a more positive assessment of the skills of workers in Poland (62 pct, up 20 pct y-o-y) and the speed of supply chain operations in Poland compared to other countries (46 pct, up 6 percentage points y-o-y).
For a long time, the cost of supply chain operations was a category in which Poland was perceived as better than average, but this year it was ranked as average by 46 pct of respondents. On the other hand, investment attractiveness, the process of obtaining building permits and the quality and availability of logistics space in Poland were described by the majority of respondents as in line with European averages.
Michał Śniadała from CBRE

The seventh edition of the Confidence Index 2024 survey was conducted by Analytiqa, between March and May 2024. Fifty respondents took part in the survey, of which 25 were from logistics companies and 25 were manufacturers and retailers.