Poland One in seven square metres of retail space to be built in Poland

Poland is expected to retain second spot in 2025, with a slowdown in new retail completions likely in 2026-2027. Meanwhile, rising retail space density rates and the growing maturity of the Polish retail market are expected to drive refurbishment projects and a stronger demand for alternative locations, including high streets.

Retail parks dominate, with retail space density growing

2024 saw the continuation of the trend that began in 2020 of retail parks dominating the development pipeline.

The three months to September 2024 marked the first-ever quarter in the history of the Polish market that was fully dominated by retail parks. 2025 is shaping up to be a similar year in this respect, as retail parks account for 70 pct of the total development pipeline. Shopping centre density rates in Polish cities are so high that few new shopping centres are being planned.
Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, head of Research, Cushman & Wakefield

Meanwhile, according to the latest Trends Radar report from Cushman & Wakefield, there has been a slowdown in new construction starts, with a decrease of around 30 pct year-on-year in 2024 and around 7 pct compared to the average for the past three years. This is expected to result in lower annual supply levels in 2026-2027.

Despite this, Poland came second in Europe in 2024 for new retail supply in shopping centres and retail parks. According to data from Cushman & Wakefield, one in seven square metres of retail space delivered in Europe was built in Poland. In 2025, Poland’s share of total new retail supply is expected to remain at around 15 pct, with France leading the way at 24 pct.
Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz

The rapid growth in retail space has catapulted Poland to seventh place in Europe in terms of retail stock comprising shopping centres and retail parks sized over 5,000 sqm.

Retail space density in Poland currently stands at 345 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants, well above the average of 325 sqm for Europe and 251 sqm for CEE, and is expected to grow steadily to reach approx. 420 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants by the end of 2026. What does this mean in practice? In the long term, tenants are likely to intensify their search for alternative locations, particularly in prime high streets. This trend is exemplified by recent leases signed in Warsaw by brands such as Empik, Bulgari, Luca, Carhartt, and Le Szapo.
Michał Masztakowski, head of Retail Poland, Cushman & Wakefield

Three cost growth drivers

Cushman & Wakefield forecasts that rental growth is expected to reach around 2.5-3 pct for EUR-denominated rents and 4-4.5 pct for PLN-denominated rents, representing a lower increase compared to 2024.

Prime retail properties, including shopping centres, retail parks and prestigious high street units, are likely to command higher rents under new leases, exceeding indexation. This will be driven by the limited availability of retail space and the continued growth in retailer turnover in top locations.
Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz

Cushman & Wakefield also estimates that service charges will increase by 3-6 pct in 2025. With service charges denominated in PLN, as is the usual practice for most retail properties, indexation is expected to be closer to the upper limit of this range.

The growth of individual items in service charge budgets and service charge rates for new leases is expected to be driven by factors such as a minimum wage increase, local hikes in waste management, water and sewage fees - which could rise by up to 15-20 pct in cities where these fees have remained unchanged in recent years - and local property tax increases. In addition, building material prices began to trend upwards in late 2024 and are expected to continue rising into 2025.
Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz

Is there a wave of upgrades coming?

There are some green shoots on the lifting of the freeze on CAPEX allocations in shopping centre budgets. While 2025 may still be more about planning than delivering major refurbishment projects, there is a growing need for more investment in improving the quality of space in shopping centres and for more ambitious planning of renovations and redevelopments.
Ewelina Staruch, Market Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield estimates that shopping centres and retail parks built before 2010 account for 58 pct of Poland’s total retail stock.

Many owners now need to decide how to upgrade their properties to better address consumer needs. Traditional retailing offers a key advantage: the shopping experiences that customers are seeking. This means that retail properties should feature attractive amenities such as relaxation areas, playgrounds, a diverse F&B offering and coworking spaces that will encourage professionals to visit during work hours. Another important aspect of potential transformation is adapting the tenant mix to suit the potential of a location. As a result, some shopping centres will require reconfiguration, while others may only need upgrades to refresh and renovate common areas.
Michał Masztakowski

Sectors driving demand the most

According to Cushman & Wakefield, in the long term, demand for retail space will be significantly driven by three sectors: healthcare, entertainment and fitness.

Demand reported by tenants from these sectors matters because they require large spaces, typically in excess of 500 sqm. They also look for diverse locations, both in shopping centres and on the ground floors of office and residential buildings. Demand is also expected to be driven by tourism. Poland is the sixth most popular destination in Europe for international tourists. The growth in international arrivals is broadly expected to drive retail growth in our country.
Ewelina Staruch

Leading retailers are also increasingly choosing to optimise their store portfolios.

Fashion retailers, for example, are increasingly expressing concerns that their stores are too small and will require larger spaces in their current locations rather than more stores. Retail developers and designers may find it noteworthy that there is currently an oversupply of small units under 200 sqm, while there is still a notable shortage of attractive larger retail units. As a result, some tenants are likely to increasingly target prime high street locations in Poland’s major cities. However, this trend can be further reinforced by systemic changes that will standardise and accelerate the leasing process in high streets, making it better aligned with business realities and shopping centre practices.
Michał Masztakowski

Contrary to the trend of upsizing stores, some retailers experiencing growth in online customer traffic are likely to downsize their brick-and-mortar stores.